Chicago Cubs Lineup (4/17/26): Hoerner Leads Off, Suzuki in RF, Cabrera Starting
The Cubs are playing their best baseball of the season, and now they’re back home for a Friday afternoon matchup against the Mets. The wind is expected to pick up throughout the afternoon, building to 19 mph with gusts in the 20s as the game goes on. After facing mainly opposite conditions, the Cubs’ suddenly dynamic hitters could really use the conditions to their advantage.
It helps that Juan Soto won’t be facing them, but they’ve also got Edward Cabrera on the bump. The big righty has yet to allow a homer through three starts, and he’s done a very good job of limiting hard contact. His four-seam plays more like a sinker, getting 5.4 more inches of arm-side movement than average, and his power change gets similar vertical action. Though they’re separated by only 3 mph, Cabrera typically locates the heater near or above the top of the zone with the change working the bottom arm-side corner.
The Cubs have him throwing the offspeed more than ever before, nearly 37% of the time, and it’s easily been his best weapon. That usage may be what’s helping his fastball to play up a little more despite sitting under 96 mph for the first time in his career. Cabrera still needs to dial the control in a bit, as he’s walked too many batters and thrown too many cookies after falling behind. That has led to a lot of hard contact that he may not be able to get away with this afternoon.
Or maybe he will be able to if the offense continues to put up big numbers. That starts with second baseman Nico Hoerner looking like an MVP candidate in the leadoff spot. Michael Busch has not looked very good at all, but the weather — and more bat speed — could help the first baseman turn that around. Alex Bregman bats and plays third, Ian Happ is in left, Seiya Suzuki is in right, and Moisés Ballesteros is the DH. Carson Kelly does the catching, Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, and Dansby Swanson plays short.
They’re facing righty Kodai Senga, who has been something of an enigma in Queens since signing a five-year, $75 million deal ahead of the 2023 season. He either pitches like an ace or like a guy who should still be in the minors, which is where he spent last September in an attempt to find his form again. He had a 2.98 ERA with 202 strikeouts and 166.1 innings in ’23, to earn an All-Star nod before finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting and seventh in the Cy Young race.
He pitched only 5.1 innings the following year due to a series of injuries that included a right capsule strain and a left calf strain, then came out on fire in 2026. Senga posted a 1.47 ERA through 13 starts, but then missed a month due to a hamstring strain suffered when covering first base. His ERA ballooned to 5.90 over his next nine starts, during which he gave up eight homers in under 40 innings. That led him to accept a demotion to Triple-A Scranton, where he made two starts to finish out the season.
There was no chance for him to come back to Queens since the Mets soiled themselves down the stretch and missed the playoffs, which was objectively hilarious. Senga had a strong spring and looked like he was back to his old self, striking out 16 with four runs allowed through his first two starts. Then he got ambushed by the A’s, who tagged him for seven runs in just 2.1 innings.
The righty’s fastball is sitting at a career-high 96.4 mph, but it doesn’t have outlier qualities and he leaves it in the heart of the zone too often. His ghost fork, something Ray Venkman once experienced, comes in around 83 mph and will dive below the zone for the most part. He does have a tendency to fire it up and to the arm side, though, and it’s that inconsistent location that actually makes it more effective.
His 90 mph cutter and 80 mph sweeper, which gets far more depth than average, have both been victimized quite a bit in the early going. Senga also had a sinker that he throws very infrequently, but it’s not really worth looking at. He’s comfortable throwing everything to everyone, hence his nearly identical splits, though he has been much worse against right-handed hitters when he’s on the road.
The slugging numbers are particularly pronounced, with his .402 allowed sitting 53 points higher than in any other situation. He’s had a tough time keeping the ball on the ground so far, plus he’s surrendered a lot of hard contact. If that holds up this afternoon, the Cubs could blow the game open early. They’ve not been able to do that against him in the past, though we’re talking about only 28 combined at-bats across the whole roster.
First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
It’s good to be back home, @ofcwrigleyfield.
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— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 17, 2026
