Cubs Could Be Only Option for Giolito, Who Might Settle for Discounted One-Year Deal

The Cubs’ pitching woes continue, with Porter Hodge set to undergo season-ending UCL surgery and righty prospect Jaxon Wiggins heading to the IL with right elbow inflammation. They have already lost de facto ace Cade Horton to a UCL injury and are awaiting the return of Justin Steele from a similar issue suffered last year, plus they’ve got Matthew Boyd on the IL. The depth that was a luxury heading into the season has already become a necessity, which could force Jed Hoyer to make an unconventional move.

Enter Lucas Giolito, by far the highest-profile free agent remaining. The former White Sox star struggled with performance for a couple of years before missing 2024 with — you guessed it — a UCL tear, but he bounced back well enough with the Red Sox in 2025 to opt out of a guaranteed $19 million. No one was willing to offer what he and his camp perceived to be his value, so he has gone unsigned to this point.

It was reported recently that the Cubs and Padres were the two teams showing the most interest in Giolito, but only one of those seems to make sense.

“The two teams linked are the Padres and the Cubs,” Jon Heyman told 104.3 The Score on Thursday. “Now, the Padres are creative, but they have zero money. So it’s not gonna be easy to sign a free agent of that ilk with zero money. So, of the two teams linked, [the Cubs]’re the only one who has a dime, so they probably have a shot at Giolito.”

The Cubs and Padres are the two teams that continue to be linked to having interest in right-hander Lucas Giolito, and the Padres have essentially “zero money,” @JonHeyman says.

Giolito previously wanted a 2-year deal but is now willing to sign a 1-year contract, Heyman says. pic.twitter.com/0BaMlc9UK7

— 104.3 The Score (@thescorechicago) April 16, 2026

The Cubs are already over the $244 million competitive balance tax threshold by an estimated $1.3 million, but Tom Ricketts is certainly willing to push past that figure with in-season acquisitions. Exactly how much more he’s allocated to Jed Hoyer’s budget is obviously unknown, and the front office needs to weigh a potential Giolito signing against trades closer to the deadline when the competitive landscape has become clearer.

Either way, we’re not talking about ponying up $19 million for one year. Heyman confirmed what has already been widely assumed, which is that Giolito’s asking price has fallen considerably.

“Well, I’ve heard that he’s now lowered it and he’s willing to do a one-year deal,” Heyman reported. “I mean, at this point, he’d better be willing to do it. No one’s giving out a multiyear deal to anybody at this stage. He needs to do a make-good and obviously he’s been throwing, but he’s not gonna be ready right away. So this is not gonna be a very lucrative year for him.”

One thing I might take issue with here is the idea that no one would be willing to give Giolito a multiyear deal, especially when we’re talking about the Cubs. This is a team that waited until Craig Kimbrel‘s qualifying offer penalties expired in June of 2019 to sign him for $43 million over three years. We have to throw some major qualifiers in there, because Theo Epstein was running the show at the time and that deal aged very poorly.

Well, other than the Cubs landing Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer. Moving on, then…

Rather than leaning on anecdotal evidence that really has no bearing on this team, I look at the potential to get a steep discount on a back-end starter who could help fill the pending rotation voids next year. Boyed, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon could all be gone at season’s end. Perhaps the Cubs could include a club option for next year, and maybe one for 2028, in the event that Giolito performs well. Club options don’t count against a contract’s average annual value, so the potential salary figures could be higher for ’27 and ’28 without hitting this year’s bottom line too hard.

Though that might be more club-friendly than what Gioltio was initially looking for, the uncertainty surrounding his performance this year and MLB in general next leaves him with little leverage. I’ve found myself liking the possibility a little more all the time, especially if the Cubs can buy themselves a little insurance at a rate that falls well below expected market value.