Rehabbing Cubs Reliever Shelby Miller Could Return by September

Most pitchers would be expected to miss the whole season after undergoing elbow reconstruction the previous October, but $200 million man Shelby Miller is no ordinary pitcher. He’s actually just a $2.5 million man at this point, but don’t try telling that to Dave Stewart, who quipped that the pitcher was worth as much money as Jason Heyward since the two were traded for one another in 2014.

That was roughly eleventy billion transactions and 12 organizations ago for Miller, who has pitched for the Cardinals, Braves, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Tigers, Diamondbacks again, Brewers again, and now the Cubs again. Well, he hasn’t quite pitched for the Cubs again. In fact, he hasn’t even begun a throwing program since signing a two-year deal with a club option for 2028.

Miller is scheduled to undergo an MRI next week, after which he should be cleared to start playing catch. As the righty shared with the Tribune, famed orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister told Miller he could be back on the mound in an MLB game by September.

“He wrote off on, ‘Hey, we’re gonna get you back this year’ just by the way I’m rebounding on workouts and the way my arm looks and feels,” Miller said. “My goal is hopefully be back even a little bit sooner than that (September), depending on how I feel, but I’m really optimistic about getting back this year and contributing.

“I feel like I’ve taken a pretty big step forward in the gym, and the way my elbow’s recovering and not getting sore from all the lifts and stuff I’m doing, I feel like I’m ready to go.”

While I still think expecting a return in 2026 is incredibly ambitious, Miller could be a difference maker for a staff that ran out of gas in last year’s postseason run. His checkered injury history includes at least 10 IL stints, and he’s been released or designated for assignment a handful of times. Since buying into a relief role in 2023, however, his performance has gotten back to the promise he showed early in his career after being selected 19th overall out of Brownwood High School in 2009.

In his age-34 season with the D-backs and Brewers — he was traded at the deadline along with Jordan Montgomery for a PTBNL — Miller set a new career high with a 94.9 mph average fastball. He threw the run-ride pitch nearly two-thirds of the time, using his elite 7.1-foot extension to make it play up even further than what the radar gun said. His splitter accounted for most of the rest of his repertoire, with the sweeper coming in around 8% to give righties a different look.

The result was a career-best 29.0% strikeout rate over 48 appearances, and he was actually far better against left-handed hitters. As tough as it is to project anything close to that from a guy who’s another year older and working back from his second Tommy John surgery, Miller and the Cubs have the luxury of letting this all play out in its own time.

“It’s more about just the way I recover,” Miller told the Tribune. “How am I feeling after I start throwing, is there any soreness, how’s my stuff, how is my sweeper [I think he either meant to say splitter or this was transcribed incorrectly] and fastball and my sliders and then you just go from there.”

Miller’s contract isn’t burdensome even if he doesn’t pitch at all between the rehab and potential work stoppage next year, but it could be a huge win for the Cubs if he’s close to decent. According to FanGraphs’ Jon Becker, Miller will earn $1 million this season and $1.25 million next with a $250,000 buyout on that $2.5 million club option. The option increases by $125K each for 50, 55, 60, and 65 games pitched in ’27, but it’s unlikely he’ll reach those for obvious reasons.

Though his injury track record can’t and shouldn’t be dismissed, the flip side is that Miller doesn’t have nearly as much mileage on his arm as you’d expect from a 35-year-old who debuted in 2012. Between advances in surgical and training techniques in just that span alone, we’ve seen several pitchers do a better job of outrunning Father Time. Maybe Miller can be a new version of Mark Leiter Jr., a righty who effectively gives the Cubs a lefty specialist because of his splitter.

As unlikely as I find a 2026 by Miller to be at this point, I’m willing to keep an open mind about what he can bring to the table if everything works out well.