The Rundown Lite: More College Feeder Convo, Royals Looking to Move SP for OF, Fairbanks Market Developing

Football is always the focus over Thanksgiving and the subsequent weekend, and I have to say it was a pretty enjoyable few days for our family. Not only did the Bears win in Philly to rise to the current No. 1 seed in the NFC, but the No. 2-ranked Indiana Indianans Hoosiers wrapped up an undefeated regular season, and the Brownsburg Bulldogs captured their second straight Indiana class 6A title. Pretty fun trifecta right there.

Now we get back to baseball, where things have been quite a bit less fun for another local program. I wrote in a previous column about how lower-level institutions have essentially been converted into the minor leagues for Division 1 schools, but that leaves a lot of mid-majors in the lurch. Take Butler University, which is a member of the Big East in major sports. Thing is, they don’t really put any effort into anything other than basketball.

As such, you have a baseball program that can’t really attract impact transfers and is just as likely as a D2 or D3 school to lose eligible players to more prestigious schools. Not that it matters given the state of the team’s pitching staff last season. Over 430.1 total innings, the Bulldogs ranked 295th out of 299 schools with an aggregate 10.44 ERA. They had a 236 WHIP from 651 hits allowed (13.63 per 9 innings, 297th) and 364 walks issued, yet they struck out only 313 opposing batters.

Call me crazy, but it seems to me that finding some local prep players who have been overlooked by bigger schools would be a better bet than hitting the transfer portal. Loyalty in college sports may be almost a myth at this point, but maybe that can be fostered by investing a little more time and effort. Or they can just go with four freshmen and reload at the higher classes.

I’d be going the other route and trying to operate like the A’s, Marlins, or Pirates. Get better at developing young players, even if you know they’re just going to leave at the first opportunity, and maybe you’ll build enough momentum to generate a measure of success. Anyway, I was shocked when I saw those numbers after someone told me to check them out. Yikes.

Moving back to MLB, things should start to pick up with the Winter Meetings one week away.

Royals Transparent About Plans

We talk a lot about how Jed Hoyer tends to move in silence, but Royals counterpart J.J. Picollo is a bit more overt. That shouldn’t stop them from talking about a mutually beneficial deal, especially as the prices for free agent arms continue to run hot. The Cubs might opt to go the trade route, and we’ve already noted potential matches with the Marlins for Sandy Alcántara and the Twins for some combination of Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Byron Buxton.

The Royals have been discussed as a possible dance partner as well, and Picollo’s recent comments underscore the fit.

“A lot of teams are looking for starting pitching, so if we have what they may be interested in, and they have an outfielder that would be of interest, then there’s potentially the opportunity to make a deal,” Picollo told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

Among a number of different starters currently on their roster, righty Kris Bubic and lefty Cole Ragans stand out. Bubic has been connected to the Cubs in the past and would not draw a huge return given his lone year of control. Ragans would likewise come at a discount over the names above after suffering through a difficult 2025 season that saw him post a 4.67 ERA between IL stints due to groin and rotator cuff injuries.

Despite the obvious risks, Ragans is under contract for two more years at just under $6.1 million average annual value (it’s currently $4.42 million, but would reset with a trade). Then he’ll be arbitration-eligible in 2028 before hitting free agency in ’29. That could result in some wild value for a guy who’s put up around a 30% strikeout rate with improving walk rates over the last three seasons.

The Cubs are expected to pursue corner outfield help this winter, which would put them in a position to trade either Kevin Alcántara or Owen Caissie in a deal for pitching. I’d say the former is most likely to be moved, but there were reports about Caissie being available at this year’s deadline. More specifically, he was said to be in play for Mitch Keller. Though he’s a solid player who might raise the rotation’s floor a little, he’s a year and a half older than Ragans at three times the cost ($18.58M AAV).

I don’t know what else it would take to get Ragans, and adding another lefty might be a little weird, but I’d rather roll the dice on his upside if he’s truly available. And in a vacuum, I’d much prefer Ragans to Ranger Suárez.

Fairbanks Could Follow Helsley’s Lead

The market for high-leverage relievers is as deep as we’ve ever seen it, and the high demand for some of the guys at the top could be helping those below them. Former Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley just got $28 million over two years from the Orioles, and many believe righty Pete Fairbanks could command something similar. That probably takes him out of the Cubs’ range, though they could still view it as far more preferable to what Devin Williams is expected to get.

Fairbanks has been the Rays’ closer for the past three years, logging 75 saves behind a 97-99 mph fastball and a mid-80s slider. Sources tell The Athletic that “Most contenders have at least touched base” with Fairbanks, who will turn 32 in about two weeks. Getting this much buzz early indicates that Fairbanks will indeed end up somewhere other than Chicago, as Hoyer typically likes to either jump out front or wait to pluck guys whose markets didn’t develop as expected.

Ponce Benefiting from High Prices

After finding the fountain of youth in South Korea, former Pirates righty Cody Ponce is looking to parlay his success with the Hanwha Eagles into a big payday. Ponce could end up doubling MLB Trade Rumors’ projection of $22 million over two years, according to that same Athletic piece from above. Eno Sarris reported that his fastball is up to 95 mph or so, and that his new splitter is a plus pitch.

The Cubs are still likely to kick the tires here, but Ponce could quickly fall out of the “buy” column in Hoyer’s value spreadsheet. If his travel plans are any indication, the righty is indeed generating strong interest. His goal was to stay overseas through the end of the year because his wife just had a baby in early November, but a report out of South Korea said he headed back to the States this past weekend.

Trailer Time

I’ve been meaning to watch both Bone Lake and Shelby Oaks — the latter of which is produced by Mike Flanagan — after their respective directors appeared together on The Kingcast, but I haven’t gotten around to it. The same is true for Man Finds Tape, directed by Kingcast guests Paul Gandersman and Peter S. Hall. Even though the found-footage trope got a little tired after Blair Witch, I think there’s room for some unique twists.