Cease Deal Could Have Cubs Turning to Trade Market for SP

I said yesterday that I was only going to cover breaking stuff for the next few days, but I have a little time on my hands and wanted to get some thoughts out. There’s been a lot of talk about what the Cubs will do to add a starting pitcher who can compete for one of the top three spots in the rotation, and the biggest signing of the winter so far might give us a clue as to Jed Hoyer’s preferences. The Cubs were never going to get near that Dylan Cease deal of seven years and $210 million, but seeing him blow projections out of the water was telling.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had Cease getting $145 million over five years, and even MLB Trade Rumors’ far more aggressive figure of $189 million over seven years was well short. Like, $3 million AAV short. Unless this is just a matter of the Blue Jays making a huge reach to improve their chances for next year and beyond, it’s a sign that the market is much more robust than expected. Even with them deferring a good chunk to get the deal down to $26 million AAV based on a net present value of $182 million, it’s a monster contract.

I’m among those who don’t understand why the Cubs are so averse to deferred money, but I wonder how much of it hinges on the requirement of having that deferred money available in real-time. You see, teams can’t simply kick the can down the road and leave open the possibility of defaulting on the contract. If the Ricketts family has all its capital tied up in its myriad investments around the ballpark and elsewhere, they might not even be able to finance a contract like the one Cease signed.

Setting that aside, we now have to look at where the Cubs will turn for that top-line starter. Cease had the best raw stuff by far, but he also had serious red flags in terms of his walk rate and fly-ball percentage. I also have questions about Ranger Suarez and Framber Valdez, both of whom were projected as high as $25-30 million AAV even before Cease signed. I have to think Tatsuya Imai is also loving that deal, as it could drive him to command at least as much.

Then again, Cease being an aberration could see prices fall across the board. Regardless, Michael King looks like the best option from among the top free agent pitchers when it comes to a fit with the Cubs. He’s probably going to get something like 4-5 years at $20 million AAV due to his less electric stuff and a much shorter track record as a starter. He only moved to the rotation full-time in late 2023 with the Yankees, and he threw just 73.1 innings over 15 starts last season due to shoulder and knee issues.

But if the prices for free agent pitchers truly are inflated across the board, the Cubs might have to seek an addition to the rotation via trade. Sandy Alcántara was among the most discussed targets in 2025 and he’s already generating a ton of buzz this winter, especially in the wake of that huge signing that took place well ahead of the Winter Meetings. New Marlins baseball boss Gabe Kapler has to be loving the timing here.

Marquee’s Bruce Levine is all aboard the Alcántara train, and he’s certainly not alone.

“I’m looking for a big trade for a guy that’s making $17 million in 2026, possibly $21 million in 2027,” Levine said. “That’s Sandy Alcántara of the Miami Marlins…He was back to being the dominant pitcher that he was at the end of the year. And for two more years of control, putting him and Horton as your 1 and 2 and having the three veterans backing that up, to me, that’s a championship-caliber rotation.”

The big righty is coming off the worst season of his career, but that came after he missed all of 2024 due to elbow reconstruction. Though his sinker was still elite at over 97 mph, his strikeout rate dipped to 19.1% and his ERA ballooned to 5.36 over 31 starts. As Levine mentioned, however, Alcántara finished strong with a 2.68 ERA and 24.9% K rate over his last eight starts. If the Cubs think they can unlock his changeup, which was once a dominant offering, I’m all aboard for a deal.

They’d almost certainly need to move Kevin Alcántara due to the little-known codicil in the Faber College constitution that forbids teams from employing two players with that same surname. That’s why the Cubs couldn’t have both Arismendy and Sergio on the roster at the same time. But seriously, they’d need to move some big names from what is already a pretty thin farm system up top if they want to make this happen.

I’m actually pretty excited about what we could see once December gets rolling.