The Rundown: Beware Fake Reports, QO Decision Day, Cubs Catchers Produced Competitive Swings

Among the many reasons Facebook is becoming even more of a cesspool by the moment is the proliferation of AI content that fools more than a few of the platform’s less discerning users. And we’re talking about pretty blatant stuff that should set off even the weakest BS detectors. But when people see news they want to believe, they’re quick to share it without stopping for so much as a second to consider its veracity.

It’s very common to see garbage sports sites putting out stories about famous players running into aging teachers and helping them to cross the street. Another prevalent trope is falsely quoting athletes, particularly if they’re supporting conservative causes. I recall seeing something about Justin Jefferson denouncing Bad Bunny as the Super Bowl halftime performer, and another one with the star wide receiver donating $500,000 for a mural dedicated to the Ukrainian woman killed on a subway.

There was another about Teddy Swims making the same donation, for what it’s worth. And what it’s worth is nothing, because it’s all fake. You’re going to see more and more of this with sports reporting, especially this time of year when it’s much more difficult to separate rumor from fact. And, to be honest, a large number of fans prefer rumors anyway.

Our heaviest traffic each year doesn’t come from things that are actually happening, but from all the trade and free agency speculation that might happen. The offseason has always been the biggest for us, followed by the trade deadline. To wit, 34 of our 35 most popular articles of all time have come when the Cubs are not playing baseball. One of the top five was just about Mark McGwire wearing Cubs gear at camp to support his son Mason, a Cubs pitching prospect.

So you can imagine how easy it is for bots to dupe the public into believing fake reports, just like the one below.

Bleacher Nation’s Brett Taylor, who might actually be an example of generative AI himself, discovered that “Travis Hudson” is also X users Venky T and Charles Rey, all of whom use the same stock image. Is it possible that some of these reports will end up being correct? Sure, just like the wannabe news-breakers will post false information in the hopes that it comes to fruition, only to delete incorrect reports after the fact.

What I’m saying is that you shouldn’t believe everything that you breathe; you get a parking violation and a maggot on your sleeve.

Imanaga, Others Have QO Decisions to Make

Most of the 13 players who received qualifying offers will turn them down without batting an eye, but Shōta Imanaga is among a small group that must seriously consider playing for a year at $22.025 million. Jon Heyman reported last week that Imanaga is expected to decline, but Mr. Hudson says he’s going to accept. As you may have noted from the tweet above, however, Hudson also added that Imanaga turned down a three-year option at $57.75 million.

If it wasn’t obvious enough that this is fake, imagine how stupid Imanaga and his reps would have to be to turn down that option only to pick up the QO. The public is pretty evenly split on what the lefty will do, but everything I see when viewing his future is that it makes more sense for him to lock in the deal. The same could be said for Gleyber Torres, Zac Gallen, and Trent Grisham, with Torres standing out as the most likely to take the QO.

As I’ve mentioned in the past, Imanaga actually needs to do better in free agency than the two years and at least $30.5 million he turned down. You see, it wasn’t just a one-year option he declined. Had he picked it up, he’d have gotten another bite at the same apple after next season had the Cubs again opted against activating what would then have been a two-year extension. Based on all the factors, I just don’t see how Imanaga does better than that.

We’ve seen a few reports about his hamstring issue hampering him in the second half, which strikes me as his camp doing a little spin doctoring. Floating the report that he’ll decline the option could draw more aggressive overtures from interested teams, giving him more leverage in negotiations with the Cubs on a new deal. Or maybe it’s all legit and he just wants to move on.

Whatever happens, the Cubs need to improve the rotation with bigger velocity and nastier stuff. The floor is quite high, yet the ceiling is far too low.

Interesting Swing Data

Baseball Savant houses all kinds of interesting Statcast data points, many of which come from bat tracking. A relatively new addition to the collective nerd repository gives us access to bat speed, swing length, and competitive swings. Defined as the fastest 90% of a player’s swings and any swings of at least 60 mph that produce exit velocities of over 90 mph, competitive swings paint a picture of plate approach.

I may have to save deeper thoughts on the matter for another time, but the discourse around bat speed is maddening right now. There are a number of flat-earthers who summarily deny the value of swinging the bat fast, which is wild to me. They seem to think swinging hard means a player is not also swinging well, which is both reductive and foolish.

There’s obviously a bell curve when it comes to batted-ball results, but it’s been proven that hitting the ball hard in the air — which is a matter of swinging fast and squaring the ball up with an upward attack angle — does the most damage. Again, though, this isn’t binary.

That said, it’s interesting that the Cubs’ three catchers were among their top seven hitters this past season in terms of their percentage of competitive swings. Carson Kelly (91.4%) was second on the team, Miguel Amaya (90.7%) was third, and Reese McGuire (90.4%) tied for seventh. Willi Casto leading the way at 91.9% tells us this is hardly a definitive metric, so we need to be careful to contextualize it.

For instance, Kelly (70.4 mph) and McGuire (70.7 mph) had below-average bat speeds with very low fast-swing rates. McGuire (8.2 feet) also had the Cubs’ longest average swing, while Kelly (7.0 feet) was among the shorter swings. It’s all about maximizing your particular set of skills and movement patterns to drive your best individual results.

Click the link above if you’d like to get into some of this on your own, but I’ll direct you to one last nugget before moving on. Giancarlo Stanton (8.8 feet) had MLB’s longest swing, but he also swings faster (80.6 mph) than anyone else. He makes for what are somewhat aesthetically displeasing mechanics with extreme rotational athleticism, hence his 97.3% fast-swing rate sitting 16 points above Junior Caminero for most in the majors.

Contrast that with Nolan Arenado, whose 8.4-foot swing length is second to Stanton’s and tied with Caminero’s. But Arenado swings the bat at a mere 71.4 mph (MLB average is 71.9) with a 16.9% fast-swing rate, mitigating those shortcomings by squaring the ball up a little more than the other sluggers mentioned here. If the aging third baseman wants to be productive moving forward, however, he’s going to have to drastically improve either his bat speed or his barrel control.

Ed. note: At the risk of upsetting that one dude who gets mad when I mention my son, I thought it appropriate to note that his average bat speed this month is 72 mph. It’s not fair to equate offseason work in the cage to actual gameplay, but not bad for a 17-year-old kid.

Trailer Time

I’m a sucker for cheesy action flicks that serve as a time capsule for the period in which they were made, so you know I love me some Anaconda. Ice Cube, Jennifer Lopez, Eric Stoltz, and Owen Wilson are great, but former MTV game show host Kari Wuhrer puts it over the top. I have watched this movie several times and probably will again before long.

That’s why I am very excited about what appears to be a highly meta reboot of the same name starring Jack Black, Paul Rudd, Steven Zahn, and Thandiwe Newton. The premise is that a group of friends is inspired by a midlife crisis to journey to the Amazon so they can remake their favorite movie from their youth. This goofball romp is set for a Christmas Day release.