Cubs Expected to ‘Rejoin the Fray’ for Alex Bregman
The Cubs made a strong push for former Astros third baseman Alex Bregman last winter, falling short of the three-year, $120 million offer he got from the Red Sox. Bregman opted out after just one year and is back on the market without the penalties associated with a qualifying offer, so he’ll be trying for the long-term deal he couldn’t land the last time around. Detroit actually offered a six-year deal worth $171.5 million a year ago, but it featured deferred money and didn’t give Bregman an opt-out until after the second year.
He was reportedly seeking a seven-year deal worth $200 million, so the safe bet is that he’s targeting six years and at least $150 million. Though he’ll turn 32 in late March and was limited by a quad strain in late May, Bregman will still generate plenty of interest after posting a 125 wRC+ and 3.5 fWAR over just 495 plate appearances. He also hit 18 homers with a .189 ISO, putting him right in line with his last several years of relative production.
In his latest free agency predictions, Jeff Passan reported that the Red Sox love Bregman and that both the Cubs and Tigers will “rejoin the fray” for his services. We took a look at that likelihood a few weeks back, and it appears as though Bregman is indeed a strong possibility to help fill the hole left by Kyle Tucker’s departure. The Phillies could factor as well depending on what happens with other moving parts. The big issue here is time, as Bregman is repped by Scott Boras and has already shown a willingness to wait on his market to materialize.
While the Cubs’ earlier pursuit of Bregman was not a referendum on their assessment of Matt Shaw, the willingness to pony up big this offseason might say otherwise. The Cubs had been looking at something similar to what the Red Sox offered, a short-term deal with an early opt-out that meant Bregman wouldn’t have been in Chicago for long. Since he’s not looking to repeat that process, they’d have to be comfortable with him at the hot corner for several years.
That could open up a number of different possibilities, ranging from Shaw being traded for pitching to using him in a utility role with an eye on playing second base should the Cubs not extend Nico Hoerner. Again, though, the issue is that Bregman’s courtship dragging out would reduce the Cubs’ leverage and flexibility to make other moves. This feels like a situation in which the demand will ultimately push the cost high enough to send Jed Hoyer in a different direction.
