Cubs Could Target Japanese RHP Tatsuya Imai, Who Throws ‘Wrong Way’ Slider
I’ve been looking for the right time to write about Japanese righty Tatsuya Imai ever since seeing Lance Brozdowski’s breakdown of his “wrong way” slider (5:35 mark, clip below), and now I’ve got it. I am a little late to the party when it comes to this topic, but I finally got around to checking Jim Bowden’s top 50 free agent predictions for The Athletic. There at No. 9 is the 27-year-old Imai, who Bowden believes could land a seven-year, $154 million contract.
That’s right in line with what Jeff Passan was hearing back in early September, with one front office official saying Imai could get more than $200 million. Another suggested a figure as low as $80 million, but the general consensus seems to be around $150 million or so. There may be a little concern that he’s just 5-foot-11 and 154 pounds, but the results don’t lie.
Imai posted a 1.92 ERA with 178 strikeouts and 45 walks over 163.2 innings pitched in NPB for the Saitama Seibu Lions this past season. What’s more, and this may be of particular importance to Cubs fans after watching Shōta Imanaga surrender 22 home runs in his last 14 games, is that Imai gave up only six homers. Only eight were hit against him in 173.1 innings last season, so that’s no fluke.
Imai’s fastball averages 95 mph and touches 99, which makes him the hardest-throwing starting pitcher in Japan. It would also put him right up there with Cade Horton for the Cubs, well above anyone else in the rotation in terms of velocity. No other shortcoming of this organization over the last decade-plus has drawn my ire as much as the abject lack of big velocity from the pitching staff. Despite ubiquitous signs and even a little effort, the Cubs simply have not kept up with this trend through either development or acquisition.
In addition to his fastball, Imai throws a changeup, a splitter, a curve, and a sinker* that he apparently just incorporated this past season. Then there’s the slider that looks like a mistake when you see it. This thing backs up so far it beeps.
Dove deep into the advanced data on some NPB stars that could impact MLB in 2026!
⚾️ Munetaka Murakami – Huge pop + scary contact
⚾️ Tatsuya Imai – “wrong way” slider & flat-approach 4S
⚾️ Hiroto Saiki – 55° arm angle … no whiffs?!Tease below, full vid in thread! pic.twitter.com/T2YhDxcPom
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) October 20, 2025
“Imai’s slider is actually a ‘wrong way’ slider, so it averages arm-side movement,” Brozdowski explained, “which is odd but connects back to the point that he turns over the ball and gets through it really well.”
That should pair well with his sinker, which may actually be a changeup with significant arm-side movement. That comes from an X comment from user Namiki Baseball on Brozdowski’s post. NPB’s terminology is slightly different from what we use here, so Imai’s “sinker” may actually be more of an offspeed pitch. It’s possible he’s manipulating it differently from his standard change, which would also be different from his splitter.
He’s also got a flat-approach fastball that has less vertical break than the average MLB four-seam, though Imai’s release point is also significantly lower. That may create angles that help his heater to be more effective than the numbers would otherwise indicate, as hitters aren’t used to it. Brozdowski theorized that MLB clubs might want to have Imai throw the fastball up in the zone more frequently, which is something we saw the Cubs adjust with Imanaga when he first came over.
Everything about Imai screams that he’ll be a solid mid-rotation option, and he could even develop into a top-line guy who eats innings. That sounds odd to say about a grown-ass man who looks like a freshman in high school, but he’s proven to be durable across parts of nine professional seasons. The Cubs’ need for dynamic pitching and their affinity for Japanese stars tells us they’ll at least due their due diligence on Imai.
The first big caveat here is that Imai must be posted in order for the Cubs, or any team, to pursue him. The second is the price tag, which will include a posting fee that would be roughly $24-25 million if his contract lands around the estimates above. While the posting fee doesn’t count toward payroll figures for purposes of the competitive balance tax, that’s a big check for an owner to cut. And we all know Tom Ricketts laments dead-weight losses almost as much as Hoyer hates how bidding wars tank his value algorithm.
Of course, the Cubs could free up a little cash in both the immediate future and over subsequent seasons by declining their three-year option on Imanaga. While keeping him in Chicago is certainly a possibility, there’s a growing sense that the Cubs would rather put the ball in Imanaga’s court, even at the risk of losing him, than commit another $57 million to a pitcher they can’t trust in the postseason. That sounds harsh, but it may be true.
Lots of moving parts here, so it’s only speculation until we find out what the Cubs and Lions do. If the dominoes fall the right way, we’ll be revisiting this topic more than once over the winter.
