AP Photo/Paul Beaty

The Rundown: Cubs Closer to Clinching HFA, Boyd Stellar in Final Start, Raleigh Reaches 60 Bombs

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 25, 2025

“And though you fight to stay alive, your body starts to shiver.” – Thriller by Michael Jackson

There are few teams I hate in baseball, but the Mets are among them. The list also includes the Cardinals, Padres, Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers. I don’t hate the Brewers, but that’s because they were my favorite AL team back in the day, especially when Phil Garner and his troops beat up on Terry Bevington‘s White Sox. Last night’s 10-3 victory was especially wonderful because it decreased Chicago’s magic number for home-field advantage over San Diego to two, and it reduced the Mets’ odds of making the playoffs to 56.4 percent.

The Cubs are once again 20 games over .500, a consistent benchmark this season, no doubt. Earning home-field advantage in the Wild Card round is huge because the Padres struggle on the road. San Diego is off today, and a win over the Mets this evening would reduce Chicago’s magic number to a single game while further denting New York’s chances. The Cubs finish the regular season with three home tilts against the Cardinals, and the Padres host the surging Diamondbacks. One game separates the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Reds. Pass the popcorn and buckle up.

Imagine a postseason where the Reds or Diamondbacks take the final Wild Card spot from the Mets, and Chicago’s path to the World Series requires beating the Padres, Brewers, and Dodgers or D-backs. The Cubs’ second-half fade makes that seem like an impossible scenario, but those are all winnable series. The teams that scare me the most are the hottest ones: Cincinnati and Arizona. Whatever happens, this year’s NL playoffs are ripe for the taking by any of the teams that qualify. I’m sure we’ll see plenty of surprises, and I just hope the Cubs are one of them.

Chicago’s keys for the playoffs are pretty straightforward, too. The team needs Cade Horton to be healthy, Matthew Boyd to pitch like he did last night, and offensive contributions from Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki. Tucker is expected to return tomorrow, but I believe he will be in tonight’s lineup. An unsung hero usually takes center stage in baseball’s annual tournament of champions, and Moisés Ballesteros could be that guy this year, provided Craig Counsell has the foresight to add him to the playoff roster.

Shōta Imanaga takes the bump tonight against Nolan McLean in the biggest game of the season for the Mets. The superb rookie is the real deal, so the Cubs need to exercise patience at the plate, build his pitch count, and get to New York’s taxed bullpen. McLean’s release point changes when he throws his cutter and changeup, which is something Cubs hitters may be able to key on. Regardless, he’s going to be tough to beat. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza is going to give McLean a long leash, too.

As maddening as this season has seemed at times, the Cubs will meet PECOTA preseason projections. Their next win will be their 90th of the season, and winning two of the final four games gets them the top Wild Card seed. It’s almost time to exhale, finally, and ease our fears until the postseason starts on Tuesday.

Cubs News & Notes

Ball Four

どうもありがと, Mr. Roboto, for helping me escape when I needed you.

Central Intelligence

  • Milwaukee (96-63): Brewers fans hoping their team loses to the Padres just to stick it to the Cubs is one of the most ridiculous takes ever. I take back what I said about not disliking Milwaukee. I hope the Cubs advance to the NLDS and sweep their asses right into bowling season.
  • Chicago (89-69): Playoff teams don’t usually make waiver moves with an eye on future seasons. That said, Jed Hoyer does love his reclamation projects, and former Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah is available after he was designated for assignment by the Blue Jays. If Manoah, who was on a minor league rehab stint after Tommy John surgery in 2024, goes unclaimed, he will be a minor league free agent this winter. Toronto does not have the option of trading Manoah because the minor league season wrapped up on Sunday. Hey, cheap pitching, am I right?
  • Cincinnati (80-78): The Pirates handed the Reds a crushing, extra-inning loss on Wednesday, and manager Terry Francona said his team needs to get over it in a hurry. Cincinnati still trails the Mets by a game with four to play.
  • St. Louis (78-81): Starter Sonny Gray said he’ll consider waving his no-trade clause ($) given the direction the Cardinals’ organization is heading. St. Louis was eliminated from the playoff race last night.
  • Pittsburgh (69-89): Paul Skenes finished the season with a 1.97 ERA and set a team record for strikeouts by a righty with 216.

Wild Pitch

“Everyone’s watching, to see what you will do. Everyone’s looking at you.” – Working for the Weekend by Loverboy

How About That!

Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh hit his 60th home run of the season on Wednesday. He joins Aaron Judge, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Roger Maris, and Babe Ruth in that prestigious club. Raleigh needs two more big flies to tie Judge for the most in a single American League season.

Kyle Schwarber blasted two taters last night and now has 56 on the season with four games remaining. The left-handed hitting ex-Cub has 23 home runs against southpaws, a new league record. Schwarber, Raleigh, Judge, and Shohei Ohtani will supply plenty of power to this season’s playoff games.

Judge reached 50 home runs for the fourth time in his career. Sosa, McGwire, and Ruth are the only other players with four 50-home run seasons.

The Phillies hit eight home runs in yesterday’s game and clinched a first-round bye after beating the Marlins 11-1.

The Guardians won again and now have sole possession of first place in the AL Central. Cleveland was 15.5 games behind Detroit on July 8.

The Mariners clinched their first AL West Crown in 24 years. Seattle won 116 games in 2001 but lost to the Yankees in the ALCS. Oh, for the heady days of Lou Piniella, Bret Boone, Freddy García, Edgar Martínez, and of course, Jamie Moyer.

White Sox outfielder Mike Tauchman needs surgery to repair his right knee and will finish the 2025 season on the injury list. The South Siders were unfortunately unable to stave off another 100-loss season.

The Rockies have 115 losses but cannot get a pick in the top 10 in next year’s draft because of the lottery’s anti-tanking rules.

Extra Innings

I wonder what Mets fans think when they watch PCA do PCA stuff. Crow-Armstrong hit NBA star Steph Curry’s signature “night-night” celebration after scoring from second on a wild pitch.

Apropos of Nothing

Nico Hoerner has been worth 6.1 bWAR this season, joining Johnny Evers, Rogers Hornsby, Billy Herman, Ryne Sandberg, and Javier Báez as Chicago’s historically elite second basemen. That’s some stacked company. Báez, by the way, also posted a 6.7 bWAR as a shortstop in 2019.

They Said It

  • “It was an important outing for Matthew [Boyd]. The last couple have been a little up and down. He came out today, and the first inning was important. He had a really good first inning, and [he] also got himself into better counts today. He was the one controlling the counts, and that’s such a big difference for Matt.” – Counsell
  • “You look around the league, every team is going through this where something happened. You have to play 162 games and then things happen during the course of even the last week of the season. You just have to make sure you’re prepared for it. We’ve got to wait and see what news we get [on Horton], that’s the most important thing. We want good news and then go from there.” – Counsell
  • “I just have a ton of gratitude. I mean to get to be a Chicago Cub, that they gave me a chance to get to do this this year, that they believed in me after only 39 innings last year. I feel like I had my best year in the big leagues. It’s not done, but I’m just overwhelmed with gratitude. Season’s not done – we still have work to do.” – Boyd

Thursday Walk-Up Song

So happy for Seiya.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 25, 2025
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