The Rundown: Palencia Hurt as Cubs Stumble, Dodgers Expected to Pursue Tucker, Brewers Still Rolling

“And though he never would wave goodbye, you could see it written in his eyes, as the train rolled out of sight. Bye-bye.” – Life in a Northern Town by Dream Academy

The weekend weather provided us a glimpse of autumn, and for Cubs fans it was as chilly as it gets. Losing two of three to the Nationals had all the warm feelings of final scene of The Last Picture Show, and if that isn’t enough, Daniel Palencia being hurt means the Cubs now have a big hole in their bullpen. It’s almost enough to leave you longing for Bears football, though that franchise has been the same tale of woe for the better part of four decades.

This season marks the 30th anniversary of the MLB Wild Card, a second chance for teams that fail to win their division. Cubs fans who predate the league’s postseason expansion know what it’s like to stop on a dime and focus on football. We’d be there today, listening to the sound of cups popping and echoing through Wrigley Field during the postgame show, if not for Bud Selig’s ingenuity. We’re up to Wild Card entries now, and though Chicago is a virtual lock to make the playoffs, the paths for the WC2 and WC3 teams are fraught with scheduling that heavily favors the better teams.

The Cubs’ lead over the Padres for the top consolation spot in this year’s postseason tournament is down to three games. The team that finishes with the better record hosts that best-of-three series in its entirety. Playing San Diego is bad enough if you’re among the fans with still-raw battle scars from 1984 and a raging case of postseason PTSD. Playing all three on the road may be enough to fit you for a straitjacket.

Losing Palencia is not Chicago’s only problem, though. The Cubs were 20 games over .500 and up a game on the Brewers on July 19. They’re 22-23 since, and Milwaukee is now up 7.5 games with 19 to play. Things are so bad that Seiya Suzuki has resorted to swinging at imaginary pitches just to break his slump. It’s a visualization exercise, but who knows, maybe he’s facing the ghost of Hippo Vaughn. More likely, the slugger’s All-Star snub may have him seeing imaginary specters while navigating his current slump. Since August 6, Suzuki is hitting .211 with four doubles, five RBI, and a .601 OPS in 110 plate appearances. He has just 12 RBI, two home runs, and a .602 OPS since the All-Star Game.

The Cubs are also playing shorthanded because they refused to put Kyle Tucker on the IL. Perhaps Jed Hoyer is trying to reduce those health insurance premiums, and penny-pinching knows no boundaries, am I right? Further, Craig Counsell is still batting Michael Busch leadoff despite an astonishing lack of offensive production. Busch didn’t play yesterday and was hitless in five at-bats over two games against Washington. The sophomore first sacker has one hit and three walks in his last 21 plate appearances.

Counsell, as I learned in a conversation with a Milwaukee sportswriter last night, is blindly stubborn when it comes to analytics. His algorithm probably indicates Busch is best at the top of the order regardless of recent results. The Cubs built their division lead and were on a pace to win 98 games when Counsell dropped Ian Happ out of the leadoff spot in favor of a combination of Busch and Nico Hoerner. That became ground zero for Chicago’s extended run of lackluster production. Though my mathematics might be slightly off, the Cubs need to average 4.4 runs per game to achieve 81 Pythagorean wins. They’ve averaged 3.9 since Busch ascended to the top of the order. I guess total runs scored is not a component of Counsell’s analytic calculations, but Chicago is nearly unbeatable when scoring four runs or more, so what gives?

There’s still time to get the offense untracked, but those grains of sand are passing through the hourglass at an ever-quickening pace. The bullpen is of equal concern, however. The Chicago reliever with the most closing experience is Taylor Rogers, though Porter Hodge seems the obvious candidate to replace Palencia. Brad Keller and Caleb Thielbar are also options. None of those four inspires any confidence for the rest of September and into October, however. What the heck ever happened to Eli Morgan? Could we trust Ben Brown to close? What about Nate Pearson or Aaron Civale? Palencia’s injury sure makes me wish Hoyer had signed David Robertson.

Loss, nostalgia, and the relentless failure of a team that was an offensive juggernaut three months ago will be the theme of this year’s Cubs’ squad. The wind off of Lake Michigan feels a little chillier and the future seems a little less rosy with each opportunity Counsell and his team squander. I can almost hear those waxed cups popping now.

Cubs News & Notes

• CI’s Jacob Zanolla believes Keller is the most appealing option to take over as closer.
• Palencia may need a reset even if his shoulder heals quickly.
• Chicago’s depth will be its strength once the playoffs start.
• Depth is an issue right now, however, so Moisés Ballesteros has joined the team in Atlanta.
• Rival executives believe Tucker will end up with the Dodgers this winter, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nightengale also expects the Cubs to rest their regulars ahead of the postseason now that catching the Brewers seems impossible.
• For what it’s worth, I do not believe Tucker has a snowball’s chance in hell of returning. Wrigley Field hurts his numbers, the Cubs are predictably too tight in negotiations, and the organization is ready to make Owen Caissie the regular right fielder.
• Happ is good at baseball. With another late-season surge ($), Happ now has 20 homers and 66 RBI. Between 2022 and 2025, his annual OPS+ looks like this: 117, 118, 121, and 120. During that time frame, Baseball Reference values his WAR at: 4.3, 3.5, 3.9 and 3.4 (with three weeks still to go this season). He’s also won three Gold Gloves as a left fielder in that period.
• Sammy Sosa and Derrek Lee were officially inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame on Sunday.

Ball Four

I’m sure Jamie Moyer knows this, but it’s still uncanny.

This is insane 🤯 pic.twitter.com/wMZaWv4tZ5

— Baseball’s Greatest Moments (@BBGreatMoments) September 8, 2025

Central Intelligence

• Milwaukee (89-55): The Brewers swept the Pirates thanks to a four-hit game by Andrew Vaughn and stellar pitching from Jacob Misiorowski.
• Chicago (81-62): The Cubs scored more runs than each team except one before the All-Star break, but they’re 26th since. That’s why they can’t escape the giant shadow cast by the Brewers ($) despite stealing their manager two years ago.
• Cincinnati (72-71): Hunter Greene struck out 12 Mets batters in a big 3-2 win that pulled the Reds to within four games of the second Wild Card spot.
• St. Louis (72-72): The Cardinals have won seven of 10 and are now back in the hunt for the final Wild Card spot. They’re tied with the Diamondbacks, one-half game behind the Reds and Giants.
• Pittsburgh (64-80): The Pirates rank last in the National League in several offensive categories.

Wild Pitch

“So glad we’ve almost made it. So sad they had to fade it.” – Everybody Wants to Rule the World by Tears for Fears

• San Diego (78-65): The Padres are expected to have a very aggressive offseason after stunning most of baseball at this year’s trade deadline.
• New York (76-67): Davey Johnson, who managed the Mets to an improbable championship in 1986, passed away over the weekend. He was 82 years old. Johnson had the sixth-greatest winning percentage (.562) among the 35 managers who won at least 1,300 games: Joe McCarthy (.615), John McGraw (.586), Al López (.584), Earl Weaver (.583), and Fred Clarke (.576). They are all in the Hall of Fame.
• San Francisco (72-71): The Giants are expected to pursue Cardinals’ ace Sonny Gray this winter.
• Arizona (72-72): Despite a trade deadline selloff, the younger Diamondbacks stars are pushing to make the playoff race interesting.

How About That!

The Padres are closer to a division title than the top Wild Card spot thanks to a weekend meltdown by the Dodgers.

San Diego is expected to activate starter Michael King today.

Nobody is disliked more right now among baseball fans than this Philadelphia woman.

The Yankees are making things interesting in the AL East.

The fallout from the Framber Valdez/Cesar Salazar incident last week could cost the star hurler dearly in free agency,

Extra Innings

Say what you want about Sosa and Mark McGwire, but the pair re-energized a sport in 1998 that had nearly succumbed to its own greed.

It was #OTD in 1998 that Sammy Sosa hit home run #60 off Valerie de los Santos of the Brewers. Sosa became the 4th player in baseball history to hit 60 home runs in a season, joining Babe Ruth, Roger Maris, and Mark McGwire (who hit number #60 4 days earlier). pic.twitter.com/4wWqkcIoeF

— Crawly's Cubs Kingdom (@crawlyscubs) September 5, 2025

Apropos of Nothing

We have a new themed bar in Milwaukee called Summer of ’85. I’m hoping they have The Super Bowl Shuffle on their jukebox, and I’m sure Take on Me by A-ha will be one of the joint’s signature songs. Did you know that Loverboy by Billy Ocean was Billboard’s No. 28 song in 1985, followed by Teena Marie’s Lovergirl?

They Said It

• “I can look at the underlying data and be content with the fact that I’m not striking out as much as I have in my career. I’m still walking. I’m hitting the ball really hard. I’m hitting it in the air. Those are the things that I can control. And if I can be OK with that, it should show up over the course of 600, 700 at-bats.” – Happ

Monday Walk-Up Song

Thank you for enjoying my mid-80’s time capsule.