AP Photo/Matt Slocum

The Rundown: Giants Sweep Cubs, Questionable Lineups Impede Offense, Schwarber Goes Off

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterAugust 29, 2025

“I’ve seen dark skies, but never like this. Walked on some thin ice, but never like this.” – The Way That You Use It by Eric Clapton

Note: I was in the middle of writing this when Evan dropped his post about Michael Busch leading off. Great minds think alike, but I’m not rewriting it.

The Cubs were swept for the first time this season, and Craig Counsell is angry after yesterday’s disappointing 4-3 loss. Well, at least as upset as he is capable of being.

“Look, we’ve got to score more,” said the frustrated manager. “In this series, we didn’t help our pitching staff out enough by getting some runs on the board.”

Counsell need only look internally to see some of the more alarming issues. The Cubs scored bushels of runs this season with Ian Happ leading off and Michael Busch batting cleanup. Those two sandwiched Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki, creating a nightmare at the start of the game for opposing pitchers. Busch performs even better in the five- or six-hole.

Counsell, however, prefers Busch at the top of the order, a maddening choice because the first baseman sees too few pitches for the 12-point difference from Happ in OBP. Busch, who offers at the first pitch 38.9% of the time, has been hitting leadoff in most of the games since July 13, and the Cubs are 19-19 since then after playing nearly .600 baseball up to that point. He’s 18-for-88 (.205) with seven home runs, 17 RBI, and 11 walks when hitting at the top of the order. Chicago was a game up on Milwaukee at the time of the switch, and they now trail the Brewers by 6.5 games.

If Counsell is truly on the hot seat, his lineup construction is easily the most damning evidence working against him. Tucker (.206-4-13) and Suzuki (.189-2-9) have also struggled since Busch was made the team’s primary leadoff batter. I understand Happ is a .227 hitter and has been consistently near that mark all season, but that’s still better than Busch at the top spot without impeding what was a dynamic offense up until the All-Star break. It gets even uglier, too.

The Cubs scored 512 runs from mid-March when they opened in Tokyo through July 13, covering 96 tilts, an average of 5.33 runs per game. They’ve scored 144 in 38 contests since, a devastating drop of 1.55 runs per game. Chicago’s expected win total based on Pythagorean Theory when averaging 3.78 runs over a full season is 71. The Cubs were playing at a 96-win clip before the lineup changes. It seems silly, therefore, that Counsell continues to run with less productive lineups. Chicago’s offensive problem is not who plays, but where those players hit.

As Counsell says, “You only bat leadoff once.”

True enough, but better to jump on a team early than scrap for runs late in the game.

Cubs News & Notes

Ball Four

Jeff Passan has far more sources than I do — I have zero — but I think Tucker’s home/road splits might work against the Cubs.

Central Intelligence

Wild Pitch

“You’ve been lying underground, eating from a can. You’ve been running away from what you don’t understand.” – Mysterious Ways by U2

How About That!

Kyle Schwarber was 4-for-6 with four home runs and nine RBI against the Braves Thursday night. The pending free agent is really amplifying the value of his next contract, and could be league MVP this season.

Mets rookie starter Jonah Tong is considered “the next Tim Lincecum” because he models his delivery after the two-time Cy Young award winner.

Hitters are swinging at first pitches at a higher rate than in any season since 1988.

MLB broadcasts are being destroyed by stats overload, which is also a common complaint against Cubs play-by-play announcer Boog Sciambi.

The Blue Jays host the Brewers this weekend in a battle of baseball’s best teams.

Extra Innings

Apropos of Nothing

Is it hot dog a sandwich? Legal precedent exists to declare that, yes, it is. The State of New York taxes prepared sandwiches at a rate of 4%, which includes heroes, hamburgers, and hot dogs. It also includes bagels with toppings, though plain bagels are exempt. Make sure you ask for your lox and cream cheese as “sides” when visiting the Empire State.

If you ask me, I’ve always thought the hot dog is a superhero. See what I did there?

They Said It

  • “[Tucker] is one of the best hitters in all of baseball. I’ve seen it firsthand. When he’s hot, man, it’s unbelievable. He can hit everything. He’s a super dynamic game-changer. It means the world to your team in the playoffs if he’s himself, which he is most of the time.” – Justin Verlander
  • “I’ve talked with other people in the industry, whether it’s with clubs, agents or other players about what they think Kyle Tucker is going to be at. Right now, they think the over/under has gone down to $400 million.” – Passan

Friday Walk-Up Song

Cubs fans, you are getting Puddles Pity Party in every Rundown going forward until Counsell reverts back to his first-half lineup. Sorry, not sorry. If any of Chicago’s players read this, please point that out to your manager.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterAugust 29, 2025
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