Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/16/25): Tucker in RF, PCA Cleanup, Imanaga Starting
Instead of reading this analysis to get an idea of where the Cubs are and what they’ll do today, you should go out to your trash bin or the nearest dumpster and root around for a while. It’s best if said receptacle is outside, because this team looks like hot trash right now. Following a series-opening loss to the Pirates in which they scored only two runs — the eighth time in 13 games this month they scored two or fewer — the Cubs are now 5-8 with MLB’s fewest runs scored (37) in August.
What’s more, they haven’t won a game in which they trailed at any point since July 2. They fell behind the Guardians 0-3 before rallying for five runs in the middle innings and hanging on for the W. That put them three games ahead in the NL Central, but going 17-18 since means they now trail the division by nine games. At least they’ve got a 4.5-game cushion over the Mets and five over the Reds in the Wild Card.
The winning pitcher in that last come-from-behind win was Shōta Imanaga, who’s on the bump this afternoon to see if he can right the ship and sink the Jolly Roger. He dominated the Bucs in Pittsburgh with five scoreless innings on April 29, the start before he pulled his hammy in Milwaukee, though his recent outings have been somewhat adventurous. Or at least that’s the case when pitching in front of a lineup that needs a shutout to get a win.
Following an implosion on the South Side that saw Imanaga rocked for seven earned runs in three innings as his fastball velo dipped alarmingly, he held the Brewers to three runs to prevent a sweep. Then he got a no-decision against the Reds despite allowing one run over six-plus, after which he wore a loss in St. Louis because he had the audacity to give up three runs over nearly seven frames. Imanaga’s 24 strikeouts over the last three starts are his most in any such stretch in his Cubs career, and he hasn’t walked a batter in his last four outings.
Not that any of it will matter if his teammates keep hitting like one of the worst teams in baseball. The good news is that the Cubs called up Owen Caissie to take some of the load off those veterans who are wearing their frustration on their faces and look like they desperately need a reset. Right? Right?!
Michael Busch leads off at first base with Kyle Tucker back in right field as he attempts to break a prolonged skid that sees him batting .140 with a 13 wRC+ this month. Seiya Suzuki is starting to come back around and he’ll serve as the DH, then it’s Pete Crow-Armstrong getting another shot at cleanup duty following a three-hit day that doubled his number of knocks in August.
Of course, he was also caught stealing second when he overslid the bag by roughly 17 feet following a leadoff single in the 9th. PCA admitted before the game that he’s felt “self-inflicted pressure” to produce, which may have led to him overdoing things a bit. Getting back to playing free and easy will help him in a big way. Carson Kelly has been steady lately and he’s behind the plate in the five-hole, then it’s Ian Happ in left.
Nico Hoerner is at second, Dansby Swanson is at short, and Matt Shaw serves as the caboose at third. Shaw has been the Cubs’ best hitter this month and in the second half by a wide margin, and he has driven in seven of the team’s 26 runs over the last nine games. He only played in eight of those games, and the Cubs were shut out when he sat. Interesting.
You might think it’s a good thing they’re facing 25-year-old righty Mike Burrows and his 4.66 ERA with 12 homers allowed in 15 games, and maybe it will be. However, Burrows held this team to one run over 5.1 innings with a career-high eight strikeouts against no walks back on June 14. Am I saying Burrows will outduel Imanaga this afternoon, leading to the Cubs falling even further behind and possibly taking on the mantle of worst team in baseball?
Yes, that’s exactly it.
The reality is that Burrows is a decent pitcher who’s alternated bad games with good ones and who is perfectly capable of repeating his earlier performance. At the same time, he could lay an egg by giving up a bunch of runs…if the Cubs can figure out how to take advantage. PCA showed signs of life yesterday; now they just need other guys to remember that it’s okay to hit the ball. The good news is that almost every slumping Cubs hitter has done well against changeups, and that’s Burrows’ best pitch.
The bad news is that his highest whiff (71.4) and put-away (66.7) percentages of the season on the change came the last time he faced the Cubs. Though he throws more of the 87 mph offering to lefties, he’s comfortable going to the offspeed against right-handed hitters as well. It’s a high-spin pitch with more ride than most, so it’s really the velo separation from his cutty 95 mph four-seam rather than exceptional depth or run that makes it effective.
That fastball is very suspect because its movement tends to carry it right out over the heart of the plate without enough ride to get up above bats. Burrows has a decent slider he throws mainly to righties, working it either up in the zone to the glove side for called strikes or down and out for chase. His curveball is a different story, as it’s mainly a lefty weapon that is pretty erratic and will end up hanging too often to be effective.
The changeup makes Burrows a big reverse-split guy, holding those left-handed hitters to much lower numbers across the board. He has walked a lot more of them, largely because of that curve, but it hasn’t mattered much because their .214 average is 40 points lower than righties and their .341 slugging is nearly 160 points lower. Not what you want to see when most of the Cubs’ underperformers are lefties, but those guys have to figure it out regardless of who’s on the mound.
Burrows is not a mystery and his results aren’t the product of fortune, as evidenced by his identical 4.66 ERA and FIP marks. If the Cubs continue to play like they have this month, they could end up with another deflating outcome. But hey, they could just as easily snap out of it and use this game as a springboard to a big run.
First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee, FS1, and 670 The Score. As much as I dislike national broadcasts, I might have to watch on FS1 just to ensure I’m seeing the game with as little lag as possible. Always good when the team-owned network is more than a pitch behind.
Game 2 vs. Pittsburgh.
Watch today’s game on the Marquee Sports Network App. pic.twitter.com/H61rQaQZrX
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 16, 2025
