Quantifying Hope: Cubs Surpassed by Brewers, Still Boast Nearly 98% Playoff Odds
It took until August 3 for the Brewers to pass the Cubs in the critical playoff odds race, but the division foes are separated by less than two points heading into the weekend. The rest of the NL Central has fallen to the wayside, though Cincinnati has been playing well enough to make a legit Wild Card run if they get the right breaks. As things currently stand, the Cubs are holding securely to one of those additional berths.
Even though the North Siders not been playing their best baseball of late, falling to second place has been far more about the Brewers playing out of their collective mind. They are 45-16 over their last 61 games, 14-4 since the break, and just became the first team ever to have a road trip in which they scored 50 or more runs with no losses and no errors.
Following a loss to the Pirates on May 24, they were three games under .500 and 6.5 games behind the Cubs. Now they’re 26 over and four games ahead. We’re talking about the Brewers playing at a 120-win pace for over two months. Could the Cubs have played well enough over that time to prevent a 10.5-game swing? Maybe, but their 35-27 record during that same stretch equates to a 91-win season. Perspective is a good thing.
Winning is a good thing as well, and the Cubs need to start doing a little more of it to at least keep the Brewers within shouting distance. That isn’t out of the question given the way the Cardinals dismantled their bullpen at the deadline. What’s more, the Brewers are hosting the Mets this weekend. Perhaps the boys from Queens can be less worthless than their counterparts from the other side of the country, as the Dodgers laid down for two sweeps against the Crew.
As big as this weekend could be for the stretch run, it pales in comparison to what will happen 10 days from now. That’s when the Cubs welcome the Brewers to Wrigley Field for five games, the first two of which are a split doubleheader. We’re almost certain to know by then whether this is a legit divisional race or an attempt to maintain position in the Wild Card.
