Quick Reminder of Why Justin Turner Spells Michael Busch Against Southpaws

There was a mild uproar Tuesday afternoon/evening when people discovered that Justin Turner was once again manning first base in place of Michael Busch. Heck, I even joked about it on Twitter. After all, Busch leads the team and all MLB first basemen with a 156 wRC+ while Turner boasts a 68 wRC+ that is better than only Jon Berti (48) and Vidal Brujan (17).

The 40-year-old’s main contribution to the team is as an elder statesman who serves as clubhouse glue and alerts Pete Crow-Armstrong to local lemonade stands. But what if I told you Turner has been really good against left-handed pitchers? Like, way better than Busch good?

We’ve already gone over this, but it’s worth mentioning again because the trend isn’t going away. Despite going 0-for-2 against Rich Hill last night, Turner is slashing .279/.329/.412 with a 108 wRC+ in 76 plate appearances against southpaws. Busch is at a measly .186/.262/.322 with a 66 wRC+ over 65 plate appearances, which means he’s been about 42% worse. When winning games matters, the manager needs to push buttons that give the Cubs the best chances to win.

If you think those samples are too small, consider that Craig Counsell has said 60-70 PAs are enough to give an adequate evaluation of a hitter. He was speaking about young hitters, more specifically about the club’s decision to demote Matt Shaw after a slow start, but I think we can reasonably extrapolate his reasoning in the case of his first base platoon.

It’s understandable to look at Busch’s numbers and ask why he’s not in there more often, but a big reason those numbers are so good is that he’s being put in more advantageous situations. Turner isn’t just a grizzled veteran being kept around for the vibes; he’s actually making a solid contribution when deployed properly.