The Rundown Lite: Shaw Improves League-Worst EV, Horton’s Change, Dudes Spell PCA’s Name on Chests
I’m writing this from a cabin a few miles east of French Lick, IN, and we’re currently sorting out the order of operations for the pontoon boat my father-in-law rented. My options are to wrap this up in 15 minutes or let the first shift pass quietly. Lucky for y’all, I think I’ll stick around for a little while.
To be perfectly transparent, much of my reluctance to head out early comes from having a call with 670 The Score coming up at 11:25am CT. Will anyone actually read this before that point? Probably not, but may as well plug it while I can.
Anywho, let’s dive into a few things so I can get a little reading done before the festivities get underway.
Shaw’s league-worst exit velos
Matt Shaw was 0-for-3 when he came to bat in the 10th, having flied out at 90.3 mph 93.7 mph before lining out at 102.6 mph. While the results may seem inconsequential on the surface, each of those balls left the bat much harder than his typical contact on the season. Even with his game-winning sacrifice fly registering 101.7 mph, Shaw’s average exit velocity of 83.5 mph is the lowest among 253 qualified hitters. He ranks 463rd out of 470 batters with at least 25 batted-ball events.
While he’s still carrying around the residual stink from his initial stint in the bigs, far too many of his hits have been bleeders and bloopers converted by his legs and good luck. Shaw’s 18.8% infield hit rate is the highest among hitters with at least 100 PAs this season, and his 12 infield hits are tied with Dansby Swanson for the team lead despite having 151 fewer trips to the plate.
I’m choosing to look at Shaw’s glass as being half full, especially after a game like this in which he showed that he can consistently produce hard contact. Besides, there’s nowhere to go but up at this point. That said, his propensity for soft contact underscores the club’s desire to find a slugger to aid their playoff push.
Horton hears a wooo
Cade Horton just pitched the best game of his MLB career last night, going seven shutout innings to keep the Guardians at bay long enough for Shaw to give the Cubs a win. What was most impressive to me was the way he kept going to the changeup over and over again. He threw the offspeed pitch 22 times, his highest total and percentage in a game so far, continuing its trend as his most valuable pitch.
That’s exciting stuff, though it comes with a caveat. The first hit Horton allowed came against a changeup to Steven Kwan in an 0-2 count. There was obviously no damage done on that or any other Guardians hit, but you’d like to see Horton improve when it comes to putting hitters away. Though his chase rate is in the 69th percentile and his whiff rate is in the 64th, his 16.9% strikeout rate is only in the 13th percentile.
In addition to that Kwan knock, Horton had Bo Naylor down 0-2 before allowing a single. He also had José Ramírez in an 0-2 count before getting a lineout to lead off the 4th, and Nolan Jones was in the same spot before flying out to start the 5th. Brayan Rocchio ended that same inning with a grounder to second after falling behind 0-2. Kwan was again down two strikes leading off the 6th before grounding to first, and Lane Thomas popped to short after falling behind 0-2.
Four of Horton’s five strikeouts also began with 0-2 counts, with only his 4th-inning punchout of Carlos Santana coming when a hitter got ahead early. That one was on a full-count changeup, as was the K of Daniel Schneeman in the 2nd. Horton got Jose Ramirez to whiff on a change for strike three as well.
As great as it’s been to see the changeup working so well, Horton really needs to get that sweeper working if he wants to take the next step. I have all the confidence in the world that he can, at which point more of those 0-2 counts will turn into punchies rather than outs via contact. That becomes far more important against a more potent offense that won’t give him as many opportunities for BABIP to work in his favor.
Dudes Being Dudes
A group of 19 Cubs fans spelled out Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s entire name, complete with a space and a hyphen, in the front row of the bleachers last night. Good times.
Trailer Time
I’ve been having fun with this one, especially the way they’ve spurred some Stephen King discussion in the comments. With that in mind, I wanted to share the trailers for a pair of upcoming TV series based on King books: The Institute and Welcome to Derry. Both require streaming subscriptions, just like Friday’s game against the Cards on Apple TV+, but maybe you can get away with a free trial.
This one looks a lot like the original IT miniseries, but I like that Bill Skarsgård is back with Andy Muschietti and Barbara Muschietti running things.
