Quantifying Hope: Sweep Boosts Cubs to 92% Playoff Odds

Things were looking a little hairy last weekend until the Rockies pulled out an extra-innings win in Milwaukee to keep the Brewers two games back. The Crew then dropped two of three to the Mets while the Cubs swept the Guardians to pump their division lead back to four games. That margin looks bigger given how evenly everyone is playing right now, except for the scorching Pirates.

The Bucs recently concluded a sweep of the Cardinals that saw them pitch three shutouts. Between those and their last two games against the Cubs, the Redbirds haven’t scored a run against an NL opponent in 10 days. They did manage to sweep the Guardians in the middle of that skid, so they’re still just 5.5 back entering Friday’s action.

The Cubs can’t fall from first no matter what happens this weekend, but hosting the Cards while the Brewers are in Miami means that lead could shrink. Or, you know, they could blow things wide open. That would be great because Milwaukee welcomes the Dodgers next week.

You know what else would be great?

Seeing a butt-hurt Willson Contreras cost his team runs with boneheaded plays. I know a lot of people still love the dude, but I can’t say I was ever particularly upset to miss out on fairly regular TOOTBLANs and other gaffes when he morphed into Billy Badass at every perceived slight.

Regardless of what happens with the Cubs, I want to wish everyone a great Fourth of July. Stay safe and stay hydrated, even if that means supplementing your 12-ounce curls.