Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/1/25): Kelly Catching, Shaw at 3B, Boyd Starting
The Cubs finished June with a disappointing 13-13 record, which should tell you just about everything you need to know about this team. The fact that going .500 for a month that featured quite a few very tough pitching matchups and just one scheduled day off between what would have been a pair of 13-game stretches (one got rained out) feels like falling short means the Cubs are pretty good. Now they have 12 games to go before the break.
First up is a Guardians squad that sits two games under and 11.5 games out of first in a division currently owned by the Tigers. Cleveland’s -47 run differential is worse than all but the White Sox in the AL Central, and it’s only the general awfulness of their rivals keeping them in second place. To be fair, they were over .500 before dropping four straight.
Matthew Boyd was part of their strong season in 2024, coming back toward the end of the year to show the Cubs enough to give him a two-year, $29 million contract. That’s looking like a great deal so far, with Boyd closing in on his first 100-inning season since 2019 with the Tigers. Even if his arm fell off during his pregame bullpen, his 91.2 innings would be a high-water mark for the last six years.
Boyd hasn’t given up more than two runs in a start since allowing four to the Reds back on May 23, the only time all season a team has hung that many earned runs on him. He’s struck out nearly four times as many batters (82) as he’s walked (21), and he typically does a good job of limiting base hits. Not bad for a guy with what looks on paper like an average fastball.
“He commands all of his pitches, he’s got a bunch of different looks for hitters,” Ian Happ told 670 The Score on Tuesday. “He really knows how to pitch.”
Even if that proves to be true again tonight, Happ and the rest of the offense should do their best to make sure it doesn’t matter. The left fielder leads off, followed by Kyle Tucker in right, Seiya Suzuki at DH, and Pete Crow-Armstrong in center. Dansby Swanson is at short, Michael Busch is at first, Carson Kelly is behind the plate, and Nico Hoerner is at second. Matt Shaw bats last at third.
They’re facing big righty Gavin Williams, who will set a new career high with his 17th start tonight. Williams’ 3.68 ERA is lower than it should be, perhaps by nearly a full run based on his 4.63 FIP, but he may be getting lucky with a .278 BABIP against. Williams throws hard (97 mph fastball), but walks a lot of batters and isn’t very good at avoiding barrels.
His fastball and curve have been less than great, but his cutter and sweeper are really solid and lead to a lot of whiffs. The key to this point has been improving upon his reverse splits from last year, turning them into a massive disparity. Left-handed batters have managed to slash just .158/.276/.317 so far, though they do have six of the 11 homers he’s allowed.
That isn’t a great sign for PCA, who has been slumping of late due in part to the Cubs facing a lot of left-handed pitchers. Even though Williams isn’t a lefty, his results make him look like one. We’ll see whether the Cubs can turn that around a little tonight.
First pitch is at 7:05pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.
