Quantifying Hope: Cubs Open Weekend with 78% Postseason Odds

I’m sure some will look at the previous series against the Marlins and bemoan the Cubs’ failure to sweep their inferior opponents, especially considering it took a 2-1 finale that was too close for comfort. Those more level-headed observers, however, will note that the Cubs are 10 games over .500 for the first time this season and boast a .600 winning percentage that puts them on pace for 97 wins. The glass is still half full, folks.

Things could get a little more challenging as they head to Cincinnati to face a Reds team that carries a little punch in spite of its losing record. That includes Friday starter Hunter Greene, a man who is more than capable of laying batters out with a haymaker or three. There’s a little more cushion in the division thanks to consecutive Cardinals losses, but the Cubs still need to keep stacking wins to maintain that buffer.

Still, playing well and having a soft remaining schedule has the North Siders in the catbird seat with a long view down at their rivals.

At the risk of further angering anyone I riled up at the outset, this team is reminding me more and more of the 2015 squad. Not only is this Cubs unit on pace for the same number of wins, but they’ve scored in bunches while also finding ways to grind out close games. Then there’s the parade of prospects coming up to help out in Chicago. While no one is saying Matt Shaw and Moises Ballesteros are Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber, the timing and aggressiveness of their promotions carry a similar ring.

The difference, of course, is the projection beyond this season. Kyle Tucker may well depart in free agency, and he’s been the key to this whole thing. Yes, Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the NL in WAR and should be in the MVP conversation, but Tucker legitimizes the lineup and forces opponents to scheme around him. That’s not taking anything away from PCA, who has “SUPERSTAR” written all over him, it’s just that Tucker has a different sort of impact.

Given the room they’ve got below the luxury tax, the outlook from the continued production of the farm system, and the prospect of a windfall from the 2027 All-Star Game, ownership needs to open the vault for Tucker. They will need to pay Crow-Armstrong as well, but that need is not nearly as pressing. With summer in Chicago right around the corner, Jed Hoyer and the rest of the team’s leadership need to begin the full-court press on Tucker.