From Black Hole to 8 Hole, Dansby Swanson Has Been Cubs’ Best Hitter Since Moving Down
Dansby Swanson came out of the gate hot, banging four homers in his first 61 plate appearances to fuel a 123 wRC+ with the help of a new torpedo bat. Over his next 65 PAs, however, Swanson’s numbers sank to the point where he had a wRC+ of 3 — that’s 97% worse than the MLB average — and a 41.5% strikeout rate. Whether the bat was part of the cause or just a symptom of something worse, and I’d argue it was some of both, a serious change was needed.
He appeared to have ditched the new bat somewhere in late April, after which he tripled and doubled to inflate those putrid numbers above from what had been far worse. For a stretch of about two weeks, the Cubs’ No. 5 hitter was a black hole in the lineup, slashing .116/.116/.141 with a -34 wRC+ and virtually no power. Even after that little bounce, though, a bigger change was needed.
That’s why Craig Counsell dropped Swanson down to the eighth spot in the order, a move that has paid huge dividends so far. Over his last 32 PAs, the shortstop is slashing .467/.500/.833 with 3 homers and a 272 wRC+ that is nearly 50 points higher than Carson Kelly (225) for best on the team in that stretch. Swanson’s 0.8 fWAR in just eight games equals the totals of Kelly and Ian Happ combined, and it happens to be the same total he’s got for the whole season.
He was actually in the seven-hole Tuesday night against the Giants, and his two knocks lifted him to a 104 wRC+ on the season. It’s impossible to pinpoint one reason for the dramatic turnaround, but equipment, approach, and a healthy dose of good luck have all played a role. I firmly believe the torpedo bat’s shifted MOI forced him into a different swing pattern that produced too many mishits and fly balls. Whether it’s a different bat or learning to better control the torped, his batted-ball results have gotten much better.
To wit, he went from 47.8% fly rate to 26.5% while increasing his line drives from 16.4% to 29.4% and improving his soft contact from 17.6% to 8.6% since switching bats. There’s some wiggle room in those numbers because I’m employing a little guesswork, but the differences are stark. Swanson also benefited from a change of scenery, so to speak, and may have simply been able to get out of his own head. Finally, his BABIP going from .206 to .469 tells us he’s getting the benefit of better fortune while also creating many more opportunities for luck to go his way.
Neither this current hot streak nor the ice-cold stretch that preceded it are/were sustainable, so now it’s a matter of Swanson settling into more stable production. Even that is a misnomer because we all know baseball production is streaky by nature. Wherever he ends up settling, my hope is that we can avoid any foolishness about him being a Jason Heyward redux.
Ed. note: Photographic evidence isn’t abundant, but it looks like Swanson was swinging a torpedo against the Giants on May 5 after having moved back to a traditional model. Maybe that’s just a trick of the light, but I zoomed in and it certainly looks torpedo-y. If that’s the case, perhaps he just got used to it and made some other adjustments.
