Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/7/25): Turner at 1B, Berti at 3B, Brown Bump Day
The Cubs had a chance to win in extras last night following a late comeback to tie it in the 9th, but what followed was one of the worst implosions you’ll ever see. After five other Cubs relievers had kept them from scoring, the Giants hung nine runs on Ryan Pressly in the 11th inning. That’s the most runs in a single extra inning in Wrigley Field history, and San Francisco did it all before recording an out.
Here’s how it went down: double, single, sac bunt fielder’s choice with no out, walk, HBP, single, single, single. Giving up five hits would have been bad enough on its own, but Pressly didn’t get a single whiff in 26 pitches. No matter how well we contextualize it, you can’t have a closer who doesn’t miss bats. Of course, pushing a runner across in the 10th would have made that a moot point.
Rather than dwell on the loss, let’s look at Wednesday afternoon’s opportunity to secure another series win against the NL West on getaway day. Ben Brown is on the bump to face a squad against which he has three total at-bats of experience — all against Willy Adames — and he may be doing so with a new weapon. After talking for well over a year about his need to increase his changeup usage by going to a more effective grip, data from his last start indicates he’s done just that.
The changeup was definitely behaving differently, but it’s hard to draw any real conclusions because he still only threw it twice. Still, seeing how much less velocity and spin it generated, all while getting more depth than usual, has me very excited about what the future may hold for the righty if he can figure out a viable third pitch.
Having him pitch a gem would be ideal, but the offense needs to make noise regardless. That starts with Ian Happ in left, Kyle Tucker at DH, and Seiya Suzuki in right. Carson Kelly is the catcher, Justin Turner bats first at first base, Nico Hoerner is at second, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center. Dansby Swanson is the Cubs’ hottest hitter right now and he’s batting eighth again with Jon Berti at third.
They’re facing 33-year-old lefty Robbie Ray, who is off to a strong start in what he’s hoping will be his first full season since 2022. Surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon and UCL in his left arm cost him all but 34 innings over the last two seasons, though that didn’t keep the Giants from trading for him in January of 2024. The only thing keeping him from being at least borderline dominant is a 13.3% walk rate that is in MLB’s 11th percentile.
Without having all the information to back this up, I think Ray gets the most ride on his pitches of anyone else in the game. Every one of his offerings has significantly more carry than the average for his peers, including his slider and curve. That helps him to get a lot of whiffs and strikeouts, leaving stuff up in the zone has led to a lot of hard contact.
Ray is pitching to marked reverse splits this season after getting more traditional results in the past, though he’s only faced 34 left-handed batters so far. He’s also been much worse on the road, though he has yet to take an L on the season even when he’s gotten shaky. Those strikeouts have helped to mitigate the walks, which is something the Cubs will have to overcome if they want to take the game and the series.
Even though Ray has been on a good roll lately, his .242 BABIP against suggests those mistakes with location will come back to haunt him at some point. I’d say Wednesday afternoon sounds like a good time for a little statistical correction.
First pitch from Wrigley is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.
Series finale vs. SF.
Watch it live on the Marquee Sports Network App. pic.twitter.com/OVLowvPsEX
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 7, 2025
