Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/3/25): Kelly Cleanup, Turner 1B, Taillon Trying to Answer Q

The Cubs drubbed the Brewers last night on Apple TV+, which was both good and bad for fans who weren’t able to watch. Bad because they missed a nine-run onslaught in the first two innings and a capper with Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s second homer of the evening. Good because they didn’t have to see that creepy af Bob Uecker statue thingy in the upper reaches of the ballpark. It’s like one of those Ronald McDonald sitting on a bench things they used to have at restaurants, except far less lifelike.

Even so, it looked better than the Brewers getting a mudhole stomped in them at the ballpark they get to call home for 75 games this year. Using an opener worked out as poorly as possible for Pat Murphy when Tyler Alexander couldn’t make it out of the 1st inning. He gave up two runs on three hits before giving way to Quinn Priester, who gave up a hit before getting the third out.

The floodgates opened from there, with Priester giving up seven runs in the second on five hits and two walks. Given the situation, he was forced to wear it for 101 pitches over 4.1 innings. Even so, the Brewers needed to use three relievers for an inning apiece before turning to first baseman Jake Bauers to finish the game. Now the Cubs look to take control of the series and further distance themselves from the pack.

Jameson Taillon is on the bump with a chance to lower his ERA for the sixth consecutive start, the last two of which have seen him allow one run apiece to the Diamondbacks and Phillies. Both of those lineups are far more dynamic than the one he’ll face tonight, though the Brewers have hit him well in the past. Then again, Christian Yelich isn’t the same hitter and Jackson Chourio (4-for-7 with a homer against Taillon) is in a cold stretch.

Taillon is throwing his four-seam just over 42% of the time, way up from last year as he allocates more usage to it from his cutter and sinker. He’s also getting a lot more ride on both fastballs, likely a product of working with Ben Brewster at Tread Athletics over the offseason. His changeup is also being thrown a little more frequently and it’s playing better, getting 4-5 more inches of drop than in previous seasons. That’s another Tread hallmark and the result is Taillon sitting in the 86th percentile for fastball value and 88th for the changeup.

More of that will certainly help regardless of what the bats do, but the Cubs have shown they can hang crooked numbers in bunches. American Family Field is currently seventh for home run factor, something the Cubs used to their advantage last night, but they also rapped out eight singles. Every starter other than Nicky Lopez had at least one hit on Friday, and they now have five regulars with an OPS of .859 or better.

Ian Happ leads off in left with Kyle Tucker across the outfield and Seiya Suzuki at DH. Carson Kelly cleans up again, Justin Turner bats fifth at first base in place of Michael Busch with a southpaw on the mound for Milwaukee. Nico Hoerner is at second, Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Dansby Swanson is at short, and Jon Berti handles third.

They’re up against an old friend in José Quintana, who is aging like the kind of fine wine you’d put in a glass so fragile it’ll break while washing it, severing a digital sensory nerve in your thumb. Through four starts with the Brewers, Q is 4-0 with a 1.14 ERA that, while perhaps a little lucky based on a 4.42 xERA and 3.35 FIP, ensures his team stays in every game. He has given up just one homer and hasn’t allowed more than one run in a game yet, though he’s struck out just 15 with eight walks and 19 hits over 23.2 innings.

Those numbers look like a mirage when viewing his Savant page and seeing all the blue with just some very light red due to his strong groundball rate. Quintana has gotten good results with his breaking and offspeed pitches, but his 90 mph sinker and four-seam are pedestrian at best. He gives up an average 91.1 mph exit velocity, putting him in the 17th percentile, and his 16.6% whiff rate is in the fifth percentile.

At the risk of jinxing things, this has all the earmarks of a regression game for the 36-year-old lefty. I could see the Cubs maybe fumbling around a little bit out of the gate, but they’ll figure him out before long. He’s only faced five left-handed batters in his lone home start this season, none of whom got a hit or walk, so the group he’s facing today should be able to inflate his splits. Maybe Turner will even prove me wrong for thinking he should be nowhere near the fifth spot in the order.

First pitch from Wrigley North is at 6:10pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

Saturdays baseball on deck.

Watch the game live on the Marquee Sports Network app. pic.twitter.com/WtM1U3aDoy

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 3, 2025