The Rundown Lite: PCA Now Team WAR Leader, Softer Schedule Coming, I-Cubs Explode for 20 Runs

Our intrepid Rundown writer is spending the next couple days moving, so I’m going to pinch-hit in the meantime. Since I can’t adequately replicate either his volume or cadence, this will just be a collection of three topics that don’t necessitate stand-alone pieces. I’ll warn you up front that I’ve spent too much time lately moderating Facebook comments and may have a warped view of what fans really think as a result.

First things first, let’s discuss the Cubs’ best player through 21 games

PCA’s hot streak pushes him past Tucker

Kyle Tucker came out of the gates smoking, but he’s cooled slightly at the plate and has been quiet lately. Pete Crow-Armstrong, on the other hand, collected nine hits and 23 total bases during the recently concluded West Coast trip. Seven of those hits went for extra bases, with three leaving the yard, and he only stole one base. So much for the idea that his game is based solely on speed.

Sure, his elite wheels are going to carry him even when his bat goes cold. But if he can maintain anything close to the 121 wRC+ he’s got heading into the weekend, we’re talking about a 7-8 fWAR player. For context, that would have put him in MLB’s top seven players last season. Coincidentally enough, he currently sits seventh in all of baseball with 1.1 fWAR, three spots ahead of the man playing to his left.

What’s really wild to me is how quick a number of fans have been to dismiss PCA as a fluke or a one-trick pony. Are our brains so irreparably broken by the century-plus of losing capped by a title and then a return to mediocrity that we can’t just look at things objectively? Wait, don’t answer that.

As we’ve been saying here since the Cubs acquired the young center fielder back in 2021, he’ll be an impact player even if he’s never better than a league-average producer at the plate. That’s because he might be the best defensive player in the game. Not just the best outfielder, but overall. Though he’s in a 12-way tie for seventh with three defensive runs saved, his four outs above average rank second and his 3.8 Def score on FanGraphs puts him in third, just two-tenths of a point out of first. According to Statcast, his fielding run value of four is tied for first.

Again, that is among all MLB players.

If you’re among those who choose to “wellakshully” his statistical superiority to a hot streak, I’ll remind you that baseball isn’t the most stable game in the world when it comes to performance. PCA got off to a sluggish start and he adjusted. If we go back to July 3 of last season, he’s slashing .263/.312/.453 with 12 homers and a 113 wRC+ over 352 plate appearances. That’s a 20-homer pace when extrapolated over 600 PAs, and we’re not using a small sample as the base.

Schedule getting better

The Cubs have played 21 games so far, 18 of which have come against teams with winning records. Even the Athletics are only two games under, putting their opponents at a combined 59-34 record in the early going. That’s a brutal stretch, but the Cubs have weathered it well despite early injury issues. Though their next eight games are also against winners, the ease of playing at home and getting plenty of breaks should help the pitching staff in particular.

Losing Justin Steele will continue to sting, but at least Craig Counsell isn’t under as much pressure to find a replacement for the time being. The Cubs won’t play on a Thursday at all this month, plus they have each of the next Mondays off. That means they won’t need a fifth starter until May 3 in Milwaukee and can pitch four on regular or extra rest each of the next three times through. That could change, of course, but it’s a nice luxury.

The other big positive with the frequent breaks is that Counsell should be able to set his bullpen up a little better. It seems as though the top high-leverage relievers are all either up or down together, which has contributed to the sporadic results of that unit. Combined with — fingers crossed — enough offense to merit using low-leverage arms more frequently, the off-days should clean some of that up.

Once they make it through the first week and a half of May, the Cubs are rewarded with this stretch of series: Marlins, White Sox, Marlins, Reds, Rockies, Reds. That’s a combined 24-46 record, with only Cincy at .500 as of this writing.

I-Cubs explode offensively

The Iowa Cubs hung a franchise record 20 runs on the St. Paul Saints in Des Moines on Wednesday, hitting a team record eight homers in the rout. And they did it without top prospect Matt Shaw, who will join them soon following his demotion from Chicago. Every member of the starting lineup had at least one hit, with eight of them getting two or more. Five players had three or more runs batted in, and six players scored two or more runs.

Moises Ballesteros led the way, going 4-for-5 with a pair of dingers and a double; Kevin Alcantara was 4-for-6 with a homer, two doubles, and five driven in; Owen Caissie also went yard. What’s more, the trio had just one strikeout between them. What’s wild is that the I-Cubs struck out 11 times and only walked twice, a ratio that wouldn’t normally accompany such an outburst.

I guess collecting 24 hits — three Sainta pitchers gave up at least seven knocks apiece — has a way of covering up for other issues. While we can’t take much away from this other than to say Iowa might have the best roster in all the minors, it’s good to see the prospects making good on the hype. Add Shaw to the mix and you’ve got an even more fun group to watch.

My sense is that Shaw won’t be down very long, especially considering the Cubs’ lack of impact depth at the hot corner. Despite what a lot of folks who have only seen him in limited action think, his issues have nothing to do with his funky batting stance. Getting some reps in Iowa to build up his confidence to ambush early strikes will do a lot for his future as a big leaguer.

That’s it for today, sorry for the lack of bullets and musical suggestions.