Pete Crow-Armstrong Appreciates Cubs’ Extension Offer, Timing Not Right Yet
A day after the report about the Cubs approaching Pete Crow-Armstrong with a multiyear extension that could have maxed out at $75 million, he popped his first two dingers of the season with his parents watching in the stands. He added a triple for good measure, giving him 11 total bases for the game and getting him to a 99 wRC+ through 77 plate appearances. Just being a league-average offensive producer is plenty for the speedy outfielder, whose 0.7 fWAR projects to at least 5.0 over a full season.
And that’s accounting for what has otherwise been a pretty slow start, so it’s entirely possible he ends up exceeding that projection — music to Jed Hoyer’s ears — with more consistent offense. But let’s say he falls short of that mark and ends up at 3.5 fWAR this year and in every other season of club control under his rookie deal. Using the accepted value of around $9 million per player win, PCA would be worth roughly $31.5 million annually.
That obviously doesn’t mean he can hold out for $30 million AAV in an extension, but it does explain why he wasn’t interested in a lowball deal that would have required at least two options to pay out fully. Though I don’t have details, my guess is that the Cubs offered something like a six-year, $30 million guarantee starting next season with options for $10 million, $15 million, and $20 million. That would buy out his rookie deal, including all arbitration years, plus one year beyond, for $5 million per. Then the Cubs could get tremendous additional value that would keep PCA in town for what would eventually get to $8.3 million AAV.
You can slice and dice the numbers however you like, but the fact of the matter is that there’s no way in hell he was ever going to accept a deal like that. Remember, the illustration above was based on his value even if he falls well short of expectations. Being a 5-6 fWAR player for the next several years makes even a $75 million guarantee with additional options a steal.
It felt a little like the Cubs were trying to capitalize on Crow-Armstrong’s offensive downturn to start the season, but this was also a matter of showing him they are interested in keeping him around. So while I tend to believe you shouldn’t open with an offer that comes across as borderline insulting, the two sides have plenty of time to work something out. As much as the low figure(s), timing was part of the reason talks went nowhere.
“The communication’s been really great throughout all levels of this conversation,” Crow-Armstrong told reporters before Sunday’s explosion. “But there’s been a general understanding and a general consensus that we’re not going to let it be a distraction throughout this year, because I’m here to play baseball.”
Having been raised as a Cubs fan in LA, Crow-Armstrong is getting a chance to live out his dream by calling Wrigley Field home. Between that and knowing he’s still got at least five more years with the Cubs, he isn’t in any hurry to sell low on his future. I don’t know if that means he’ll be open to some sort of hometown discount, so to speak, but he’s certainly open to working something out.
“That’s something I’d absolutely love to do, and Carter and Jed know that,” Crow-Armstrong said. “Again, that’s been a part of the good round of communication we’ve got. I would obviously love to do it here. It’s all just a big ol’ compliment. They’ve been nothing but really complimentary of who I am, what I mean to the organization.”
Seeing so many other young stars around MLB inking long-term deals despite little to no experience in the bigs surely has both the Cubs and PCA thinking about how a contract could work out. Teams get the benefit of discounted rates for buying out what would normally be low salaries, while players can secure their future much sooner than they’d have otherwise been able to. Of course, the deal has to be enough to delay free agency for a few more years.
This is a route the Cubs are surely bullish on due to their endless pursuit of bargains to help in their quest to reach the break-even point each year. What’s more, they want to keep a little powder dry for their negotiations with Kyle Tucker. Despite some reports to the contrary, Cubs Insider is among multiple outlets reporting that talks have occurred. That doesn’t mean anything is ongoing, and there may have been zero progress whatsoever, but it’s something the organization is interested in working out.
In the meantime, it’s probably best to focus on how Tucker and PCA can help the Cubs this season. We can worry about the future when it gets here.
