Chicago Cubs Lineup (4/13/25): Happ Leads Off, Turner DH, Rea of Sunshine Pitching
My kingdom for an afternoon game. At least this Sunday Night Baseball Affair gets an earlier start than either of its predecessors. The Cubs tied up the series last night with a relentless 16-0 drubbing of the Dodgers that stands as the worst shutout loss in franchise history. It was also the Cubs’ fourth ever road shutout win of 15+ runs, most in MLB history. I was at one of those in Cleveland back in 2015, fun times.
Their lopsided victory also puts the Cubs ahead of their foes in the run-differential category, which is what we’re all truly focused on at this point. The Cubs continue to lead MLB in that category, with their +41 sitting 17 runs better than the Padres squad they just took out at Wrigley. The Dodgers are now at only +2 as they look up in the NL West standings.
Sunday offers a chance to win yet another series, their fourth straight, while kicking off a daunting road trip in fine fashion. They’ll have to do it behind Justin Steele‘s replacement, Colin Rea. An experienced swingman, Rea should be able to give the Cubs at least four innings in this one after tossing three and two frames in each of his last two relief appearances.
He’s been relatively efficient, needing 63 pitches to get through those two outings and giving up no walks with four hits, all of which came in the longer effort against the A’s. Rea has maintained a starter’s repertoire so far, throwing six different pitches to varying degrees. His 93 mph fastball leads the way at 39% and his 83 mph sweeper makes up another quarter of his throws.
The cutter is a firm offering at 87 mph, then he has a sinker (9%), split (6%), and curve (1%). I have to wonder whether that hook was just a sweeper that got loose, as his primary breaking ball has been moving with much more depth and less arm-side break than in the past. Many of his sweepers have fallen into the average range of righty curves, so that tracks.
I hate to say that this is one of those games where you just want Rea to eat some innings regardless of the result, but that’s kind of what this is. He was signed to be veteran depth in the event of someone going down, so anything positive is gravy. That said, getting a strong performance from him would carry a lot of weight.
Ian Happ is coming along slowly but surely, and he’s back in the leadoff spot yet again. Kyle Tucker looks to continue his torrid pace in right and Justin Turner handles DH duties with Seiya Suzuki resting his sore wrist. I’m not really sure what the Cubs see in that matchup, as you’ll find out below, but someone has to hold the spot. Michael Busch had a day in the romp and he’s cleaning up again, then it’s Dansby Swanson at short, Nico Hoerner at second, and Pete Crow-Armstong in center. Carson Kelly is catching after his two-homer outburst, then it’s Matt Shaw at third.
They’re facing Tyler Glasnow, who yours truly was stumping for the Cubs to acquire from the Rays before the Dodgers got him and immediately inked a big extension. The 31-year-old righty, who looks like Irish actor Cillian Murphy was run through Willy Wonka’s taffy puller to add a foot to his stature, is making his third start of the season, the first two of which have been studies in contrast. After pitching five shutout innings against the Braves with eight strikeouts and three walks, Glasnow gave up five runs in two innings against the Phillies.
He walked five with just two strikeouts in that one, making the Phils’ two hits much more damaging than they might otherwise have been. Glasnow’s cut-ride fastball sits just above 95 mph, down a tick from last year and nearly two from his peak in Tampa. Some of that could be age, but we’ve seen plenty of modern pitchers maintain and even increase their velo well into their 30s.
Glasnow also threw a career-high 134 innings last year and you wonder whether he might be limiting his intent just a little bit to log at least that many again this season. It could just be a matter of changing his strategy, getting away from the fastball a little in favor of the curve and slider. That’s not so much a matter of throwing his four-seam less frequently, but just getting more out of those secondary offerings.
The curve will be our focus for now because he’s throwing it with much more depth and a little more sweep than in recent seasons. Its movement profile looks much more similar to 2020 and ’21, which tracks with his 54-degree arm angle this year being more in line with those seasons than when he’s been a few ticks higher in between. You might think coming more over-the-top would create more depth, but the result has been less horizontal break.
Glasnow may be getting too much break, though, causing him to either tip batters off or throw hooks that end up out of the zone even if they fool hitters. Whether they’re spitting on good pitches or just freezing and getting the benefit of the call, the result is the same: a measly ninth-percentile chase rate. But the fastball has been the real issue because it’s getting just a little less ride with a little more glove-side. Between that and coming in a wee bit slower, it’s been easier for hitters to time up.
The lanky righty still gets incredible extension, making his pitches jump on hitters with extra perceived life, and he keeps the ball on the ground over 53% of the time. That mitigates a 33.3% hard-hit rate by generating enough weak contact to put Glasnow in the 93rd percentile for average exit velocity allowed. If the Cubs are going to win this one, they may need to make the most of their very patient plate approach against a pitcher who has displayed shaky control so far.
Working in Glasnow’s favor is the Cubs’ lack of familiarity with him. They’ve had a combined 27 plate appearances against him, 14 of which have been by Turner. The gritty ginger is 0-for-14 with 10 strikeouts, so it makes sense for him to sit this one out. Might want to cross your fingers and hope we don’t see a vintage performance from Glasnow tonight.
First pitch from Dodger Stadium is at 6:10pm CT on ESPN and 670 The Score.
