Quantifying Hope: Cubs Head to LA with Nearly 60% Postseason Odds

For those who haven’t been around for this column in the past, yes, I know it’s early. The purpose of Quantifying Hope is to track the season on a weekly basis to look at how the Cubs are progressing toward the postseason. As things stand heading into a six-game West Coast road trip, FanGraphs gives them a 59.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 51.7% chance to take the division. Not bad considering their schedule to this point.

The Cubs are 9-6 against a combination of the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, A’s, and Rangers. That’s five teams in the West divisions, four of whom are expected to compete for the chance to play more than 162 games. But the rub is that the Cubs’ next 14 games come against the Dodgers (twice), Padres, Diamondbacks, and Phillies. Can anyone explain to me how it is that the Cubs will play two different teams twice and one team three times before facing a divisional opponent?

I mean, it’s bad enough that the foes the Cubs are doubling and tripling up on are among the best in baseball. Then you factor in how they don’t face the Pirates until late April, the Brewers until the start of May, the Reds until late May, and the Cardinals until late June. The Cards’ first visit to Wrigley comes over July Fourth weekend, which is incredibly stupid.

I’ve been critical of the new balanced schedule for many reasons, the biggest of which is that it messes with these rivalry matchups. Maybe I’d be singing a different tune if the Cubs got to face the A’s three times in the first three weeks. Nah, that would still be super foolish.

This installment and the rest of its early counterparts will be brief by necessity, as they’re more about posterity than anything. But stick around throughout the season as we track the ups and downs according to postseason probability.