Kyle Tucker Will ‘See Where Everything Goes’ as $500M Contract Comps Continue

New deals for Garrett Crochet, Ketel Marte, Jackson Merrill, and Kristian Campbell all grabbed their share of headlines, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr.‘s 14-year, $500 million deal with the Blue Jays made an even bigger splash. The ripples were seen washing across Lake Michigan from Wrigley Field, where Kyle Tucker‘s future will remain in question every day for the next six months or so unless he works out a deal of his own. While the right fielder hasn’t shut anything down, he certainly doesn’t seem to be in any hurry to secure the bag.

“It’s what he wanted to do,” Tucker said of Guerrero’s extension before Monday’s win over the Rangers. “I’m sure he loves playing in Toronto and everything, so that’s great for him. But everyone’s a little different. Right now, I’m here to play this year and play for the Cubs.”

Tucker’s play so far has been even better than anticipated, putting him atop the leaderboards in several offensive categories. He leads MLB with 1.2 fWAR, putting him on pace for 11.25 if he logs 600 plate appearances, and his 17 hits are also more than anyone else. His 14 runs scored are tied with Aaron Judge for the most in MLB and his 16 runs driven in trail His Honor by two. The above-average defense in right and three stolen bases are just gravy for the reigning NL Player of the Week.

Even if this pace isn’t entirely sustainable, Tucker is finally getting his flowers on a national stage after playing fifth or sixth fiddle in Houston for the last half-decade. Alex Bregman, who was just named AL POW for the Red Sox, was a bigger star for the Astros. So was Jose Altuve. Carlos Correa and George Springer were bigger names during their overlapping time in Houston, and some considered Yordan Alvarez to be a better player.

There’s often too much made about a change of scenery or playing in a contract year, though it does feel like those factors are in play for Tucker. Whether it’s getting out from under the shadow of multiple other players or getting the chance to prove himself with a team that doesn’t suffer from universal disdain, there’s a certain lightness about his demeanor.

“It’s been great ever since I’ve been over here,” Tucker told reporters. “Everyone’s been super nice and helpful and everything. Hospitality’s been great. Obviously, you guys can walk around this facility, it’s really nice. I’m just here to play some baseball and see what happens after that.”

If he keeps playing the way he’s been playing, what happens after that will be a monster deal that could approach the half-billion Vladito just got. Many have pointed out that Tucker is two years older than his colleague and will be closer to three years older if he waits until free agency, making the structure of the deal a bit different. But Tucker is also a better overall player who will surely have suitors falling over themselves to overpay him, which means he’s not settling for something reasonable at this point.

So if you were getting your hopes up about Jay Jaffe’s writing in FanGraphs that it will “take some kind of sales job” for Tucker to get even $350 million, you might want to recalibrate your expectations. Jaffe was using some very conservative ZiPS projections and rooted his estimate in logic, which doesn’t always rule contract negotiations. If the Cubs want to lock Tucker into a long-term deal before he reaches free agency and the possibility of someone grossly overpaying him, they’re going to need to get to at least Judge money.

The massive slugger’s nine-year, $360 million contract might still be a little light since he signed it heading into his age-31 season. Tucker will turn 29 next January, so it’s entirely reasonable to believe he could get at least 10 years. Maybe it could stretch to 12, but I think we’re looking at a baseline of $40 million AAV either way. So maybe 10/$400M or 12/$480M. If you put any credence into what Marquee’s Lance Brozdowski has to say, and you should because he’s awesome, those numbers aren’t far off.

“I actually spoke to someone today at Excel Sports Management, which is Tucker’s agency, and I made them give me an estimate for Tucker’s eventual contract, whether it be in free agency or an in-season extension,” Brozdowski said on the Cubs Daily Podcast. “And the number they gave was 10 years and $475 million. Sure, it’s a biased source, within his agency. Of course, they’re going to promote him. Absolutely. But I thought it was actually somewhat reasonable, and I think it’s a good over-under for what he eventually will receive.”

There’s also the matter of deferrals, options, escalators, a no-trade clause, and other contractual mumbo-jumbo that can add more to the overall value than just the dollar figure. And though the Cubs have the benefit of pitching Tucker both overtly and more subtly via the immaculate vibes of a Chicago baseball summer, they don’t really get the benefit of the doubt on a hometown discount. So even if Tucker loves playing there, they’ll probably have a kick in a little extra to get him to forego the open market.

“Obviously, he’s a great player,” Hoyer told reporters prior to Friday’s home opener. “That’s why we traded for him. Clearly he’s the type of player you want to build a lineup around, build a team around. Any conversations we have with him, we’ll keep internal. So there’s no point in asking all the time, I guess — yeah, I know you will. But yeah, like I said, it’s a process.

“I’m excited, I think he’ll learn what Wrigley’s all about over the next few months, which I think is really important. There’ll be nicer days than this that he’ll enjoy. I’m excited to have him and, like I said, anyone wants a player like that long-term.”

My thought is that the two sides might be able to work something out for $450 million or possibly a little less if the structure is right, but that figure goes up with every homer. And we all know how reluctant this organization has been to even consider such a deal. So while I have to continue covering this because that’s kinda what we do here, I’d advise you to do your best to simply enjoy Tucker’s performance for what it is and let the future sort itself out in due time.