The Rundown: Hoyer’s Offseason Solid Despite Missing Bregman, Third Base Shaw’s to Lose, Padres Add Pivetta

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterFebruary 13, 2025

The Cubs lost the battle for Alex Bregman because the Red Sox decided it was okay to outbid the nearest team by more than $10 million in AAV. That’s a big win for the third baseman and a gigantic win for Scott Boras. According to reports, Bregman received final offers from the Astros (six years at $26 million AAV), Tigers (6/$28.58M), Cubs (4/$28.75M), and Red Sox (3/$40). Chicago wouldn’t have been a finalist had Jed Hoyer signed Rōki Sasaki or Tanner Scott.

Bregman’s decision leaves Matt Shaw as Chicago’s top third baseman, with Gage Workman, Vidal Bruján, and Jon Berti providing competition. If Shaw doesn’t grab a roster spot and break camp as a starter in 33 days, Chicago will be in a lot of trouble once the season starts. Perhaps Hoyer will turn his attention to free agent infielder Justin Turner, who could also back Michael Busch up at first. I like Turner, who would probably make the Ken Harrelson All-Will-to-Win Team, but I’d rather the Cubs find a starter and one more reliever.

Dylan Cease is a hot name, but I’m leery of giving up Owen Caissie or Kevin Alcántara, plus a young pitcher and another top prospect for a one-year rental. There will be cheaper options at the deadline, so why not give Ben Brown a shot? He could be the organization’s most electric young starter since Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, and if he fails, Chicago has some nice redundancy in Cade Horton. You’re counting on good health, sure, but the $30 million Hoyer has to spend will go a lot further at the end of July than it will today, and some of that money should be additionally earmarked for extending Justin Steele. The prospect hit will be much lighter, too.

I get on Hoyer a lot, but he’s had a successful winter despite being runner-up for Bregman and Scott. The bullpen is improved, and if Matthew Boyd can stay healthy, he’s a huge upgrade over Kyle Hendricks. Tucker is a fantastic addition and gives the team the premium bat it’s been missing since 2020. Brown and Horton are potential difference-makers; don’t let prospect fatigue curb your enthusiasm for either. Shaw has to be better than the combination of Christopher Morel and Isaac Paredes.

Look, Chicago missed the playoffs last year because its hitters and relievers went ice cold for a 75-day stretch, starting with a late-April massacre at the hands of the Red Sox in Boston. Hoyer added Eli Morgan, Ryan Brasier, and Ryan Pressly to a bullpen that was mostly stellar for the final three months of the season. Colin Rae will replace Drew Smyly. Shaw, Tucker, and Carson Kelly are upgrades over Morel, Cody Bellinger, and Yan Gomes. Morgan, Brasier, Pressly, and a full season from Tyson Miller and Porter Hodge should be better than José Cuas, Richard Lovelady, Yency Almonte, Adbert Alzolay, and Héctor Neris.

The net cost for those upgrades was Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, Cam Smith, Juan Bello, and cash considerations. Boyd, Rae, and Kelly cost Hoyer about $24 million in AAV. Whether Hoyer spends the money saved by trading Bellinger to the Yankees is irrelevant because it’s still an asset. Bregman would have been a fantastic addition, but not at $40 million per year plus QO considerations.

The Cubs are leaner, more flexible, and well-positioned to acquire talent when an opportunity presents itself. It’s not a Dodger-like offseason, but that was never going to happen anyway. Chicago has a big leg up on the rest of the division and more reinforcements are coming sooner or later. Hoyer deserves credit for his best offseason since replacing Theo Epstein, as hard as it is for me to admit that. I give him a B+, and it could bump to an A if he saves the bulk of that Bellinger money and his prospects for the deadline.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like he spent the offseason watching Dennis Rodman in The Last Dance.

Central Intelligence

Spring Training News & Notes

Bregman may move to second base in Boston. The Red Sox currently list Rafael Devers and Triston Casas as the starters at third and first base, respectively.

The Padres prefer not to trade Cease, but reliever Robert Suárez still may be available.

Nick Pivetta is joining San Diego’s rotation thanks to a four-year, $55 million contract with a unique structure. Is it just me, or does A.J. Preller feign selling every winter only to continue overpaying for additions?

Anthony Rendon is hurt again, and his $245 million contract may go down as the worst in MLB history.

Former Braves reliever John Rocker is back in the news for all the wrong reasons. Shocker.

On the IR

I had elbow surgery on Monday, so I’ll be a one-handed blogger for about 4-6 weeks. Send Nutter Butters and Pepsi, please. At least I can voice-to-text on Twitter.

Extra Innings

Don’t sleep on Horton. He could force his way into the rotation.

They Said It

  • “Talking about exact budget numbers is always a dangerous thing. But I would just say, we’ve been focused this offseason on trying to optimize as much as we can within our budget to make sure that we are a competitive team.” – Hoyer
  • “They think somehow we have all these dollars that the Dodgers have or the Mets have or the Yankees have, and we just keep it. Which isn’t true at all. What happens is we try to break even every year, and that’s about it.” – Tom Ricketts
  • “I don’t think you ever consider yourself done building a roster. Whether big or small [moves], I don’t think you should consider yourself done. Especially on February 11. I would say still always looking at options out there. Absolutely.” – Counsell

Thursday Walk-Up Song

Third base is officially Shaw’s to lose. Knock it out of the park, kid.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterFebruary 13, 2025
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