Healthy, Relieved Ben Brown Should Have Inside Track to Starting Spot
The news of Javier Assad suffering an early setback with a possible oblique injury was a bummer, though it may open up opportunities for the Cubs to look to someone else as a primary starter. Despite the competence of his numbers over the parts of three big-league seasons, there’s almost always a sense during Assad’s starts that everything could go sideways at any moment. His strikeout and walk rates are worse than league average, and his combination of walks and hits allowed means he’s constantly having to work around baserunners.
While he’s had enough experience at this point to consider that at least as much a matter of skill as luck, the Cubs already have too many starters who get by largely on guile. They really need to be looking at Ben Brown as a full-time member of the rotation regardless of Assad’s outlook. Brown and Jordan Wicks are looking to bounce back from injury-plagued seasons and will be stretched out as starters this spring if for no other reason than to give the Cubs enough pitchers to make it through their trip to Tokyo in just over a month.
Bruce Levine joined 670 The Score’s Mully & Haugh show Tuesday morning to share a little bit about each pitcher’s outlook as camp gets rolling
“The real good news is about Brown and Wicks: pain-free, injury-free, full-out this spring training,” Levine said. “Both of them look in tremendous shape, talked to both over the last two days. You won’t recognize Wicks, he is not the…let’s say the soft body that he once was anymore coming into spring training. He’s really transformed himself, lost over 20 pounds. Redistributed, as they say, looks great.
.@MLBBruceLevine shares a few updates on the health of Cubs pitchers, including the great news that Ben Brown is pain-free.
Listen: https://t.co/AhfJTlrS5c pic.twitter.com/00xZIIpqKu
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) February 11, 2025
“And Brown at length talked to myself and some of the other media members about the physical part being clear, the mental part having gotten over the fact that there’s a mass in your shoulder and you don’t know what it is. That fear for him, his wife, his family, all behind him.”
First things first, the mental aspect of this can’t be overlooked. If you’ve ever dealt with a chronic issue of any sort, let alone one involving a mass of unknown origin, you surely know how hard it can be to trust your body again. Even if you’re pain-free, your mind can manufacture things or put up barriers that it thinks will keep you safe. Sounds like Brown is past that, so good on him.
Though his season was limited to only eight starts and 15 total appearances, Brown flashed the kind of elite stuff that could make him a real difference-maker in the rotation. His 28.8% strikeout rate led the team by nearly four percentage points (min. 50 IP) and his 0.81 HR/9 was second to only Justin Steele (0.80), led by his “death ball” curve that was graded out as the best in the game before he was shut down. His 96 mph fastball is well above his fellow starters and his 77th-percentile extension means it plays up even further.
Brown releases the ball at an average of 6.8 feet from the rubber, or 6 inches closer to the plate than the average MLB pitcher. I won’t get into all the additional context, but I’ve been doing a ton of research on this topic lately for unrelated reasons. Anyway, you get approximately 1.7 mph of additional “effective velocity” for every foot of extension beyond average. That means Brown is really pumping it in there close to 97 mph to set up a curve that doesn’t act like hitters think it should.
That combination allowed him to survive on just those two pitches, though he talked last spring about incorporating his changeup more frequently. Upping his offspeed percentage to something more than the very low single digits could really make Brown stand out, especially if he can get the same ride and arm-side movement. I’ve grown really partial to the kick-change, something Tyler Zombro is very familiar with from his time at Tread Athletics, but Brown has kind of a modified two-seam grip.
Rather than having his fingers on the narrow part of the seams, he places them back toward the widest portion of the horseshoe. His grip may lead to him getting a little more carry on what is a very firm change at 91 mph rather than the greater depth associated with most kicks. That’s probably better given the more nominal depth and sweep of his curve, as having a changeup with similar shape could diminish the effectiveness of both pitches.
Definitely something to watch for as we get more information out of camp. If Brown can get back to the form he flashed last season, I see having him in the rotation as a complete no-brainer even if Assad is perfectly fine. Brown presents a different look from the other starters in terms of his stuff and appearance, making him as ideal a fit as you can find among internal options.
As far as reinforcements go, the top name on the list is Cade Horton. The Cubs’ surprise No. 7 overall draft pick from 2022 is being treated very carefully after he was shut down after only 34.1 innings with what was being called a subscapularis strain. That raised a few alarm bells due to its relationship to the rotator cuff, but everything seems to be fine for the organization’s top pitching prospect.
“I think it’s a slower roll because it’s two years in a row where he’s dealt with injuries,” Levine explained. “But I saw him on the mound yesterday doing pitchers infield practice and he wasn’t throwing a lot. He was on the mound and they do the simulated throw to home, the coach hits the ball to the shortstop. So he’s out there, he’s gonna throw. We don’t know what limitations he’s gonna have quite yet.”
Horton isn’t part of big-league camp and may not even pitch in live competition as the Cubs treat him with kid gloves. It’s possible he’ll stay back in Mesa for extended spring training, after which he should be ready to jump right back into the fray at Triple-A Iowa. From there, it’s just a matter of time and health before he gets the call to Chicago. The most likely scenario is that he’ll be brought along like Steele, who served primarily as a reliever when he first came up, though much of that will depend on what kind of innings cap the Cubs have on Horton.
We’ll have much more coverage on the rotation and its individual members throughout camp.