AP Photo/Kevin M. Cox

Alex Bregman Could Get Similar Power Bump to Nick Castellanos at Wrigley Field

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanFebruary 5, 2025

While I remain far less bullish on the potential acquisition and subsequent impact of Alex Bregman, especially since that probably means parting with either Nico Hoerner or Seiya Suzuki, I think it’s important to ensure we’re having intellectually honest conversations about it. As such, I was drawn in by the reactions to comments ESPN’s Paul Hembekides made in a conversation with Buster Olney on the Baseball Tonight podcast. You can watch the clip below and I’ve also transcribed it.

He should avoid the Chicago Cubs at all costs, Buster. And the primary reason for that is the environment. I went to Baseball Savant, went to the park factors leaderboard, sorted by right-handed hitters, and just examined how much of a liability he would be playing in in Wrigley Field. And the answer is astonishing.

 

It is the most difficult ballpark of any for a right-handed hitter to doubles, which is basically the most important skill that Alex Bregman needs to be chasing. His fly ball potency, let’s say, is not nearly what it used to be. And if he’s not going to be playing in an environment like he was in Houston, where the Crawford boxes are 310 feet away, what he needs to be doing is chasing 40 doubles. That’s the worst place in baseball to be doing it.

 

And so what I’m doing if I’m Alex Bregman is doing the very opposite. I’m looking at Toronto and I’m looking at Boston and saying, ‘How do I get myself on a prove-it contract in an environment like that that matches my swing, that matches my bat speed, that matches my skillset. More agents, more players should be fitting their players’ skill to environment, and Chicago is the very worst place that he could wind up.

In order to better set up and thus truncate what might otherwise be a rambling diatribe, I’ll now direct you to this note from Greg Zumach of North Side Bound. As you can see from the image, any negative impact from Wrigley’s deeper dimensions down the left-field line is outweighed by its cozier power alleys. Left-center would be particularly kind to Bregman, much the same way it was for Nick Castellanos when he came over from Detroit in 2019.

Part of the reason Wrigley is considered a “bad” doubles park for right-handed hitters is that many balls that would go for two bases elsewhere end up landing in the bleachers. And if we’re looking at park factor, it’s important to recognize that Wrigley played much worse than usual last season due to an unexpected frequency of poor weather conditions. That’s not an excuse, just an explanation.

In the interest of not cherry-picking one stat or area of impact, I should note that Baseball Savant does show Bregman would have hit fewer homers at Wrigley (26 by advanced model and 29 by standard) than in whatever they’re calling Houston’s ballpark (31) now. However, those models apply only to the homers Bregman actually hit and whether they’d have gone out in other ballparks. If we expand the sample to all of Bregman’s batted balls, a quick count shows he’d have collected 41 homers at Wrigley.

You don’t even have to understand much about baseball to know that hitting 40 homers will get you paid a lot more than 40 doubles. So if Scott Boras — who I just spoke to very briefly about Bregman, no scoopage — is interested in a landing spot that will allow his client to cash in at a time when his production appears to be in decline, the Cubs might be an ideal landing spot. Not only are Wrigley’s dimensions very well suited to Bregman’s profile, but it stands to reason that the wind won’t be as detrimental in 2025.

There are plenty of things to be concerned about relative to Bregman’s performance and the ripple effects his acquisition by the Cubs would have, but the ballpark’s potentially negative impact on his hitting isn’t among them.

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanFebruary 5, 2025
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