Padres Closer Robert Suárez Among Several Players ‘Still Being Talked About’ by Cubs
I’m sure you’ve all had one of those days where your brain just can’t seem to get out of second gear, and that’s where I’m at today. Most days, according to my critics. In any case, I’m going to do my best to give this as much attention as it needs without simply regurgitating what I’ve already written about two or three times. The Padres making closer Robert Suárez available in trade stirred speculation of the Cubs’ interest, and it appears as though Jed Hoyer has indeed done his due diligence.
“[Hoyer] is not done yet,” Bruce Levine said on 670 The Score’s Inside the Clubhouse Saturday morning. “We’re talking about Bregman, we’re talking about Cease, we’re talking about a closer named Robert Suárez with San Diego. These are all things that are still on the table, still being talked about.”
We’ve previously covered the 34-year-old’s (on March 1) 99th-percentile fastball velocity and late-inning experience, but we haven’t delved into his professional journey or the nuances of his contract. You would normally expect to see a guy his age with a 99 mph heater boasting far more than 136 appearances in just three MLB seasons, though late bloomers have become more prevalent due to the success of Driveline, Tread, and other outfits. Rather than coming from nowhere, Suárez spent six seasons over seven years playing in Mexico and Japan before joining the Padres.
If you’re wondering about the disparity, Suárez missed all of 2017 due to elbow reconstruction. Following a strong foreign career that saw him rack up 96 saves with a 2.59 ERA over 268 appearances, Suarez came stateside and has saved 37 games with a 2.89 ERA over 136 games. His strong showing as a 31-year-old rookie spurred the Pads to offer him a five-year, $46 million deal that features hefty incentives and an opt-out after this season. Therein lies the rub.
While getting a flamethrowing closer for either one year at $10 million or three for $26 million seems downright cheap by today’s standards, that player option makes it difficult to judge Suárez’s trade value. His games-finished incentives aren’t worrisome because triggering them means he’s pitching well enough to keep getting the ball in the 9th, though even that raises questions about the Cubs’ recent acquisition of Ryan Pressly.
The former Astro was diplomatic when speaking to the media about his role, falling short of saying he was guaranteed to be the closer, but the Cubs had to offer some assurances in order to get him to waive his no-trade clause. Making another trade to bring in Suárez would be more than just insurance, and he might not be too keen on a de facto demotion with that opt-out looming. Pressly similarly needs to put up save numbers in order to make the most of his pending free agency next winter.
At the risk of upsetting anyone who believes these guys should just suck it up and pitch for what they’re being paid, the mental and emotional components shouldn’t be ignored. Back to the more concrete factor, which is that Suárez will either pitch well and be gone or he’ll pitch poorly and leave his team on the hook for two more years at $16 million. Trading for him means losing at least one other player off the 40-man, either via trade or DFA, and he might only be around for one season. That’s a risk to be weighed.
And we’re not talking about a sure thing here. Suárez may have that big fastball, but his subpar secondaries meant his strikeout and batted-ball numbers were less than stellar. He was in the 49th percentile or worse for grounders, barrels, strikeouts, average exit velocity, whiffs, and hard-hit rate. At least he’s a strike-thrower, so walks didn’t hurt him. His four-seam and sinker both generate good value because they get a ton of ride, it’s just that his changeup is pretty weak and he ditched his breaking balls last year.
Maybe there’s an unlock to be found by incorporating more spin, even if it’s just at the show-me level to keep hitters off his stuff. Not that it really matters if he can consistently dot upper 90s at the letters. We know Tommy Hottovy and the Cubs love them some sinkers up in the zone, so Suárez is a fit in that regard. He also fits the budget, which probably has around $15-18 million remaining.
That’s why the Alex Bregman stuff remains far-fetched to me. The Cubs are currently estimated to be just a little over $207 million in CBT salary, and adding Bregman on the kind of short-term deal they’d need for it to work would probably mean getting to around a $30 million average annual value. Even with a subsequent trade of Nico Hoerner, Hoyer would probably be tapped out until the trade deadline at best while making only a modest improvement to his roster. There aren’t many people lower than me on Bregman or higher on Hoerner, so your mileage may vary on the impact.
For that same payroll cost, and possibly much less if they get the Padres to eat some money, the Cubs could trade for Suárez and Michael King. The latter just avoided arbitration with a $7.75 million guarantee with incentives that can push it to $8 million if he makes 28 starts in 2025. There’s also a $15 million mutual option that exists merely as a vehicle for a $3.75 million buyout to round out his $3 million signing bonus and $1 million salary for this season.
We should touch on Dylan Cease in here as well, though initial conversations had the Padres asking for Matt Shaw. That’s a hard no. Any deal would almost certainly include either Javier Assad or Jordan Wicks as a cheap rotation replacement, then Owen Caissie — who seems to be losing some shine with evaluators — or Kevin Alcántara, and a hard-throwing swingman/reliever like Nate Pearson or Ben Brown. Pearson being stretched out as a starter during spring training is an interesting development that could be as much about generating interest as anything else.
It’s also possible the Cubs could be enticed to move either James Triantos or Moises Ballesteros, a pair of very hitterish prospects whose respective futures are limited by their lack of a true position. Any package will be dictated by how much money the Padres are willing to eat because we’re talking about at least one rental and possibly two after Hoyer has already acquired a pair of former Astros who may both be in Chicago for just the coming season.
Hoyer may as well push some more chips in because he’s also got just one year left on his deal and is pot-committed at this point. While I don’t see a blockbuster as particularly likely, there’s been enough smoke with the Padres that it’s worth monitoring.