Pete Alonso, Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander Reportedly Considering Shorter Deal with Opt-Outs

A report from last week said righty Jack Flaherty and switch-hitting slugger Anthony Santander were willing to accept short deals with high average annual values and opt-outs, a trend we’re seeing with greater frequency. Now we can add Pete Alonso to that list as the first baseman is reportedly willing to sign a three-year deal for what Ken Rosenthal predicts could end up around $93.3 million. The catch is that said offer is only open to the Mets. That news first came from SiriusXM’s Jim Duquette and was subsequently confirmed by The Athletic’s Will Sammon.

That seems like a massive discount on the nine-year, $214 million Scott Boras was thought to have been targeting for his client, and it’s still quite a bit less than the five years and $125-140 million reputable outlets predicted. However, the $31.1 million AAV would best Miguel Cabrera ($31M) as the highest ever for a first baseman. When he can’t get the largest total figure ever, Boras loves to get his guys AAV records by $100,000.

But if this deal is only available to the Mets, why are we discussing it on a Cubs site? Good question. It’s less about Alonso himself and more about what such an offer means for the remaining market in general as we creep closer to the season with Jed Hoyer still needing to improve his roster. We’ve talked previously about Alex Bregman and how he might find himself settling for a similar short-term deal, but I still don’t see that as likely even if it becomes slightly more so with each day he doesn’t sign elsewhere.

Santander is even more of a longshot given the Cubs’ already-crowded outfield. Unless they end up trading Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki, both of whom have no-trade clauses, there’s no way Hoyer is ponying up even on a short deal. Besides, upgrading the pitching staff remains the lowest-hanging fruit at this point.

That means Flaherty feels like a better possibility if he’s indeed willing to take a discount in terms of duration. He just turned 29 and might be interested in a deal that allows him to opt out after the first season, though that would also subject him to a qualifying offer. The fact that he isn’t saddled with a QO and the resultant penalties that come along with signing such players means the Cubs should be far more willing to pay a little more for his services than they would have for several of his peers.

Juicing the AAV a little bit, maybe to $25 million, and throwing in some performance bonuses might be enough. Then again, that would mean the Cubs putting all of their Cody Bellinger salary savings into one player, an idea that doesn’t seem to fit their MO in the least. It’s fair to wonder whether they’ll spend any of that money at all, though it seems like they will reinvest at least some of it. My guess is that Hoyer’s actual payroll is somewhere in the neighborhood of $200 million, which would put the club’s CBT number close to $220 million.

That means he’s got roughly $20 million left to spend in free agency while maintaining a buffer of $21 million or so below the luxury tax penalty threshold. As restrictive as that is, it still gives Hoyer plenty of room to add Kirby Yates or Kyle Finnegan and at least one more pitcher. The Cubs could even make a play for an old friend who came up through the organization more than a decade ago and then reinvented himself after pitching for several years in the KBO. More to come on that.

While things could certainly change, everything we’ve seen to this point indicates the Cubs are being forced to operate with a lower payroll following last season’s tax overage. Some of that is on the front office for failing to avoid the penalties, but much of the blame must be directed at business operations as well. Though the sports-broadcasting landscape has been fraught since Marquee’s inception, Crane Kenney’s team has yet to make good on the promises of those wheelbarrows of cash that were supposed to keep the Cubs competing with the big boys year after year.

Maybe we’ll get a big CubsCon surprise this weekend, but I’m banking on a couple of smaller moves over the next few weeks. That should still be enough for this team to hold its own in the division, but it’s going to require better luck and much more consistent performance across the board.