Cubs Add Righty Reliever Ben Heller on Minors Deal, Upside Outweighs Small-Sample Results
You might scratch your head when seeing that the Cubs signed a 33-year-old reliever with only 62 total MLB innings pitched over parts of six seasons, especially when he put up an 11.25 ERA in 12 innings for the Pirates in 2024. But there’s more to the Ben Heller story than that, and it starts with recent front office hire Tyler Zombro. This could be the first example of how Zombro will be “working closely with Cubs leadership in player acquisitions, leveraging his unique skillset to drive value.”
Zombro came from Tread Athletics, which has been flooding the MLB ranks with pitchers and performance specialists over the last few years. That pace seems to have picked up lately and it’s easy to see why when you look at how Tread does things. I won’t dive into all that here, but suffice to say they’re up there with Driveline when it comes to providing all kinds of free information and programming in addition to their cutting-edge methods.
While a few will undoubtedly lament this as yet another Jed Hoyer dumpster dive, viewing this deal as such displays a fundamental misunderstanding of the industry. First, non-guaranteed minor league deals represent zero risk to the organization. The financial outlay is almost nil and Heller doesn’t get a roster spot, and he’ll only earn the league minimum even if he shoves and earns a bullpen role. It’s pure upside.
Heller’s career has been limited by Tommy John surgery, a stress fracture in his elbow, and various issues with consistency. That has led to stints with eight different organizations in the last nine years, with MLB appearances for only three of those teams. Heller has never made more than 19 appearances or thrown as many as 19 innings in any single season at the highest level. So wait, where’s the upside?
For one, his fastball was up to a career-best 96.3 mph in his action with the Pirates last season. Then you factor in a starter’s pitch mix: four-seam, cutter, sinker, slider, split-change. The latter of those was highlighted by Tread earlier in the month and you can see why Zombro and the Cubs would take flyer on this guy. Getting him pointed in the right direction and keeping him healthy could result in a serious payoff.
Here’s Ben Heller’s supination-dominant splitter grip that is absolutely filthy:
Averages on the year:
✅ 86 mph
✅ -2.5″ vertical break (!)
✅ 11.2″ horizontal break
✅ 45% whiff%
This compares to Logan Webb & Devin Williams‘ CH depth. pic.twitter.com/epgV8UU7tt— Tread Athletics (@TreadHQ) December 13, 2024
If we take out Heller’s first two appearances with the Pirates in which he allowed 11 earned runs on nine hits with three strikeouts and four hit batters over just two innings, things look much better. Not that it’s fair to extrapolate 10 innings of work, but a 3.60 ERA with 12 strikeouts and five walks is certainly passable. Again, it’s all about finding a way to dial in his control and command.
Heller seems to have struggled with either walks or homers over the course of his career, though it’s tough to do much with that given the small samples. Perhaps there’s an unlock in his pitch usage. That’s the case with any number of guys the Cubs have added as lottery tickets over the years, but my guess is that Zombro whispered in Hoyer’s ear because he’s got a good feeling about this one in particular.
I’m not suggesting anyone should get all excited about the possibilities or anything, but it could be fun.