Here’s Why Kyle Tucker Was Worth Big Haul Even as Rental

Kyle Freaking Tucker. King Tuck. Whatever you want to call him, just call him the Cubs’ best player. This whole thing went from zero to 60 faster than an electric supercar and seems to have been manifested by (most) Cubs fans’ collective vibes or whatever. It was only on Monday that Astros GM acknowledged that Tucker and pitcher Framber Valdez were not untouchable in trade talks, which quickly turned to a chorus of “Cubs should get” across social media. Four days later, the Cubs did get.

Heady stuff. Even though there’s a non-zero number of fans who are pissed about this deal, whether it’s because they feel the return was too big or just because they wake up every morning and piss in their own Cheerios. Well, I’m here to tell you it’s not too big — that’s what she said — even if Tucker doesn’t last too long — also what she said — on the North Side.

This trade gives the Cubs an elite hitter the likes of which they haven’t seen since peak Kris Bryant. And with all due respect to KB’s greatness at the start of his career, Tucker might be even better. Through his first five years in the league, Bryant slashed .284/.385/.516 with a .383 wOBA, 139 wRC+, and 138 homers in 3,105 plate appearances. Over the last five seasons, Tucker has slashed .279/.358/.525 with a .373 wOBA, 143 wRC+, and 121 homers in 2,417 PAs. Bryant has a clear edge in OBP, but Tucker has displayed more power and would probably have hit more homers if the samples were more equivalent.

And the thing about Tucker is that he’s only 28 in January and appears to be getting better. He walked more than he struck out this past season, leading to a gaudy .408 on-base percentage that was nearly 120 points higher than his .289 average. His .296 ISO was higher than every player in MLB (min. 300 PAs) not named Aaron Judge (.379) or Shohei Ohtani (.336), and his OBP trailed only Judge (.458) and Juan Soto (.419). Since becoming a regular in 2020, Tucker ranks among the top 13 qualified hitters in ISO (.346, 13th), wOBA (.373, 13th), wRC+ (143, 10th), and fWAR (20.9, 13th).

When you have a chance to acquire an elite hitter on the verge of superstardom, you do it. Yes, even if it’s only for one season. I know a lot of people have no faith in team leadership to be either willing or able to stretch to what it’ll take to keep Tucker in Chicago long-term, but I’ve got this crazy sense that maybe — just maybe — this is the guy they love enough to finally do the thing. After all, Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins have been laying breadcrumbs this week.

“There is nothing that precludes us from being involved in those players,” Hoyer said when asked about Juan Soto. “We did, organizationally, decide not to pursue that one. It doesn’t mean in the future we won’t but that was one we didn’t.”

Now pair that with this quote from his lieutenant.

“The term you’ll hear is the marginal value of a win,” Hawkins said when asked about the value of a rental player. “Going from 85 to 87 is really, really important. That might be the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. You’re also going to put more leverage on those additional wins [if] they’re going to change the potential outcome for your team. When you do that, you’re willing to pay more for those. So, yeah, I think that definitely goes into the calculus.”

I’m not even done with my first old fashioned of the evening, but that may have been enough for me to think they were tacitly acknowledging a shift in strategy. That doesn’t mean they’ll be able to extend Tucker at a price tag that could reach or even exceed $400 million, but I have a very strong sense that they would not have pulled this off without knowing that Tucker is their chance to right the wrongs they made by failing to pursue Bryce Harper.

But what if they don’t get it done with Tucker and he walks? Disappointing, sure, but not all for naught with the big haul they gave up. Isaac Paredes was the biggest no-brainer of all time due to his fit at Daikin Park being every bit as good as his fit at Wrigley was bad. Hayden Wesneski wasn’t all that consistent in a shifting role and was expendable with other swing options stepping up. The only real pain point is found in Cam Smith, the No. 14 overall pick from the most recent draft who rocketed up the prospect charts on the strength of a stellar pro debut.

As much as it sucks to lose a guy you think could be a dude, it’s best to remember that Smith has contributed nothing to the big club. The Cubs don’t have to make up for any production whatsoever, and there’s a possibility that he never even makes it to Houston. Based on what they had to give up, I’m more than fine with this trade under any future circumstances.

The upgrade over Cody Bellinger, who I believe will be in New York before the Bears play the Vikings on Monday night, is significant. I also believe Matt Shaw will be an upgrade over what the Cubs would have gotten from Paredes, which I realize sounds really dumb coming from someone who just downplayed another prospect’s potential impact. My only issue at this point comes down to the possibility that the Cubs may still be looking to move Nico Hoerner.

Unless they make another move to bring in a third baseman with a floor of similar height to Hoerner’s, which is really saying something, it’ll be tough to square things. I suppose sending Hoerner to Seattle for Luis Castillo would provide enough of a rotation upgrade that they could afford slippage elsewhere, but we’re talking about such a well-rounded producer that I can’t get behind such a move at this point.

Anyway, let’s get back to Tucker for a moment. I already provided a KB comp, but there’s another very familiar name that gives an example to dream on. I’m talking about one Joey Votto, who slashed .313/.405/.550 with a .409 wOBA, 152 wRC+, and 119 homers through his age-27 season. Those are better numbers than what Tucker has posted, no doubt, but it provides a lofty target for what the new Cub could be in the future.

Credit to Hoyer for pulling out his set of brass balls like Alec Baldwin in Glengarry Glen Ross and getting the deal done. The Cubs have a dude who could provide multiple incremental wins and who signals to the rest of the league that they’re for real. That’s what you do when you need to win now. As for whether they can actually make that happen…