Nothing Shocking About Bellinger News, Reassessing Hoyer’s Rebuild

Remember when a grizzled Jed Hoyer gushed over Cody Bellinger in late 2023 when it appeared the outfielder was destined to leave via free agency for what was believed to be a $300 million contract? Hoyer could barely contain himself while discussing Bellinger’s future. The nine-figure offers never came, and the Cubs eventually signed Bellinger to a three-year, $80 million deal with two super-sized opt-outs.

“Belli knows how we feel about him.”

Jed Hoyer on Cody Bellinger. pic.twitter.com/fkk5XnQoFj

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) August 2, 2023

Rather than test the icy waters of the open market again, Bellinger decided to stick around for Year 2 of the deal and the cool $32.5 million guarantee attached to it. Hoyer, whose affection is now equally distributed among Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Matt Shaw, and Owen Caissie, is currently dealing with a strong case of buyer’s remorse. Rumors circulated over the weekend that the president of baseball operations was offering Bellinger to everyone at this year’s GM meetings. That drove wild speculation that Hoyer intends to shred salary this winter, which isn’t shocking.

You don’t need to read tea leaves to understand the machinations of Hoyer’s front office. Whether you call it intelligent spending or threading the needle, the common denominator is frugality. Hoyer wants five-win production at four-win prices, and probably spends more time poring over data than watching baseball. It’s alarming he didn’t see Bellinger’s potential for regression and his eventual willingness to stick around. That leaves the short-sighted executive with a couple of more painful options.

1. He can attach prospects to Bellinger in trade talks to help mitigate the cost of acquiring the outfielder.
2. Hoyer can agree to pay down a large portion of Bellinger’s salary to make a trade more palatable for the acquiring ballclub.
3. He can lessen the impact of carrying Bellinger’s contract by trading Isaac Paredes and/or Nico Hoerner. That would open up playing time for two of Shaw, James Triantos, or Cam Smith while buying Caissie and Kevin Alcántara another year at Iowa. Paredes is looking at $6.9 million through arbitration while Hoerner will earn $11.5 million in 2025.

Option three checks a lot of boxes for Hoyer. Chicago’s prospects will play on rookie salaries, increasing the odds that production will greatly exceed cost. Hoerner would be a great addition to a team like the Angels, and Paredes was in high demand at last year’s trade deadline. The return for either will exceed what the Cubs will get for Bellinger without additional accounting shenanigans.

Shaw looks like he is primed to succeed immediately as a rookie while Triantos is as underrated a prospect as you’ll ever see. If the rookies earn four wins, Chicago is still the 83-win team it was in 2023 and ’24. Bullpen upgrades could be worth an additional 4-6 wins. It’s also worth noting that the Cubs are no longer paying Kyle Hendricks and Drew Smyly.

Hoyer already said he’d have to get creative to make roster additions this winter. Bellinger might be difficult to trade, but the front office has plenty of fluidity regardless. Additionally, a reduced payroll was probably always on the table because of the team’s expected youth movement. Perhaps Hoyer also learned a lesson in baseball economics. His willingness to pay higher AAVs for shorter terms is taking a big chunk out of his Ivy League ass. Bellinger and Dansby Swanson will earn salaries this season that practically match what the Phillies are paying Bryce Harper.

The Bellinger news doesn’t change much of anything on Chicago’s North Side. A stable bullpen and favorable Wrigley Field weather remain the Cubs’ quickest path to a 90-win season. Nobody expected Hoyer to be shopping for Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, or Alex Bregman. Max Fried is still a possibility and getting Rōki Sasaki would be considered a coup of sorts. Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, and Shane Bieber are potential bargains, and a catching upgrade would be nice. For Hoyer, it’s status quo, as it should be.

Ball Four

Hoyer was promoted to replace Theo Epstein in 2021 because Epstein didn’t want to make the tough decisions regarding Chicago’s Word Series core. The two have distinct but opposite personalities, something that occasionally irritates Cubs fans. Now that Hendricks is gone, none of that core remains, but Hoyer deserves credit for changing the structure of the organization.

It’s still difficult to grade those moves but they are worth reassessing considering some of those seeds are ready to bear fruit.

• The Cubs non-tendered Kyle Schwarber, which is still puzzling. He’s hit 163 home runs with 382 RBI in four seasons since leaving Chicago, good for nearly 10 wins. Ian Happ replaced him and he’s earned 13 wins while winning three Gold Glove awards. It would have been nice to get something for Schwarber, but the non-tender no longer seems woefully egregious.
• Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini were traded to the Padres for Caissie, Zach Davies, Ismael Mena, Reginald Preciado, and Yeison Santana. This trade hinges on the success of Caissie, Chicago’s No. 2 prospect. Darvis also gets an assist for helping with the acquisitions of Seiya Suzuki and Shōta Imanaga. We’ll keep our fingers crossed for a helper with Sasaki, too.
• Hoyer traded Kris Bryant to the Giants for Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian. Bryant’s current contract is a financial albatross for the Rockies, but neither prospect has succeeded as much as fans had hoped. Kilian’s development notoriously stalled two seasons ago, though he’s still young enough to bounce back. Canario will likely be traded at some point.
• Chicago fleeced the Mets by getting Crow-Armstrong for Javier Báez and Trevor Williams. Báez has been a disaster in Detroit while Happ believes PCA is on the verge of becoming a six-win player.
• Hoyer acquired Alcántara and Alexander Vizcaíno for Anthony Rizzo, the heart and soul of the Cubs for nine seasons. Rizzo is currently a free agent, while Alcántara could be trade bait due to positional redundancy in the organization. Vizcaíno never made it past South Bend.

The Cubs also traded Craig Kimbrel for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer; Andrew Chafin for Greg Deichmann and Daniel Palencia; and Ryan Tepera for Bailey Horn. Rebuilding the farm system also netted draft picks Shaw, Smith, Cade Horton, and Jackson Ferris, with the latter eventually traded for Busch. Hoyer certainly deserves credit for creating the current roster flexibility the Cubs never enjoyed under Epstein. Still, that won’t matter unless Chicago wins a championship with Hoyer running the front office.