Cubs Reported Desire to Shop Cody Bellinger ‘Worst-Kept Secret’ of GM Meetings
I wonder if this latest report from Bob Nightengale will earn him more stern words from Jed Hoyer when the two next cross paths. They got into it last year at the Winter Meetings over a report from Nightengale that Christopher Morel was involved in trade talks with the Rays, which looks kinda funny knowing how that eventually played out. Though we’d already heard reports that the Cubs were willing to move Cody Bellinger, Nightengale paints a picture of a team that may be desperate to dump salary in addition to freeing up roster space.
The big problem is that Bellinger is guaranteed $32.5 million — $27.5 million this season and a $5 million buyout if he opts out — with the potential for it to go to $55 million if he serves out the whole deal. That’s a bargain if he returns to his 2023 production and can continue playing center field while staying healthy. If he’s performing at his 2024 level, however…
“Come on,” one GM told the USA Today scribe, “who’s going to touch that contract? The risk is just too great for the production.”
Nightengale called the Cubs’ desire to move Bellinger the “worst-kept secret at the GM Meetings” and says they offered the first baseman/outfielder to “anyone and everyone.” Even if we assume a little artistic license here, this is a strategic departure for a front office that typically holds its cards very close to the vest. Taking Nightengale at his word confirms that the Cubs definitely did not want Bellinger to return and that the baseball ops folks may be operating under an edict to trim payroll significantly.
That tracks with the curious decision to end up just barely over the $237 million competitive balance tax threshold as a result of signing Bellinger. I was skeptical of the logic at the time and remain so now, especially when going over by a few million more could have yielded a stronger bullpen than the cobbled-together unit Hoyer admitted last winter needed to have more certainty. The inability to move Héctor Neris and Drew Smyly, even for sharply discounted returns, was part of what kept them over the line.
This is yet another drawback to having a moderately competitive roster populated by a large number of good-not-great veteran players. They perform well enough that you can’t guarantee improvement via prospect promotion, yet the cost is too often greater than the return in terms of production. As the biggest example of that, Bellinger now represents an albatross of sorts for Hoyer.
Now, whether it should be prohibitive for a team with the Cubs’ wherewithal to carry a versatile player whose 2.2 fWAR last season is likely his basement for the next two years is another story. As shocking as this must be for many of you, it sounds like Tom Ricketts’ arms are too short to reach into those deep pockets for any of the top talent on this year’s market. We already knew the Cubs weren’t going to pursue Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, but Nightengale says they’re probably out on Blake Snell and Max Fried as well.
That last one is mildly surprising because Fried has been the player most frequently linked to the Cubs over the last several weeks and they seem to be at the right point in their acquisition cycle to offer another nine-figure deal to a pitcher. If that’s true, they really are leaning into the idea that one or two prospects can make up for Bellinger and Mike Tauchman while a stronger and more consistent bullpen prevents more wins from vanishing like they did early in the 2024 season.
I suppose we could try to put a really positive spin on this and say they’re bullish on their chances to land Japanese phenom Rōki Sasaki, but his price tag will be so low that Bellinger’s status is irrelevant. Then again, having a potential ace-level hurler on a minor-league deal would give Hoyer more leeway to eat money in a Bellinger trade while adding a slugger on the back end.
It would be one thing if this is just a matter of truly believing they’ve got the talent to compete for the NL Central and more with just a few tweaks around the margins. However, the apparent zeal with which they’re trying to move Bellinger indicates strongly that it’s at least as much about getting and staying well below the CBT penalty level. Guess we’ll find out soon enough.