Hoyer Positioned Nicely for Roster Upgrades, Paredes Deserves Full Season Assessment

Jed Hoyer doesn’t inspire much faith among Cubs fans, but he has positioned the organization to do some damage this winter. First and foremost, the president of baseball operations is sitting on $50-70 million in spendable money. He also has eight prospects among baseball’s top 100. Most analysts agree the Cubs need a superstar, but that’s not Hoyer’s MO. He believes players like Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ are perfectly capable of putting up 5+ WAR seasons, allowing that label to attach itself organically.

Of course, that also means Chicago’s top executive will not be shopping in the deepest end of free agency. That automatically removes players like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Alex Bregman from consideration.

There are cheaper ways to find potential superstars, however. The White Sox are shopping Garrett Crochet, and the A’s might make Mason Miller and Brent Rooker available. Rōki Sasaki is going to be posted but won’t cost more than $10-12 million. Jack Flaherty will get a deal that compares favorably to the one Jameson Taillon signed in 2023. The Red Sox are said to be open to trading Jarren Duran, and it’s November, which certainly means that Jesús Luzardo is available. Hoyer could theoretically sign Walker Buehler and Shane Bieber and still have plenty of money for other upgrades.

The Cubs need a catching upgrade and Matt Thaiss isn’t the answer. We’d all like to see Hoyer acquire Logan O’Hoppe, but keep your eye on Kyle Teel. The Red Sox need right-handed bats and pitching, which is something of a surplus in Chicago’s system. The Cubs need left-handed hitters and Teel has the type of offensive profile that gets Hoyer salivating. He’s blocked by Connor Wong, and a two-for-one trade that includes Miguel Amaya or Moises Ballesteros might get it done. It also helps that Craig Breslow is intimately familiar with Chicago’s prospects. Teel could be this year’s version of Michael Busch.

The Cubs are as frustratingly close to the playoffs as they are to another 83-win season. Hoyer admitted he has to be creative to improve the roster and he has plenty of assets and options to make that happen. Soto would be a fantastic addition, but the Cubs can find eight wins for a lot cheaper than $600 million, no matter how creative the contract is. Chicago’s organizational depth and plenty of cash leave Hoyer with some intriguing possibilities. I’ve been tough on him, but I believe he will find those eight wins. He has to if he wants to keep his job beyond 2025.

Hot Stove Polling

Which rotation would you prefer?

• Option A: Justin Steele, Shōta Imanaga, Taillon, Javier Assad, Cade Horton, and Jordan Wicks.
• Option B: Steele, Imanaga, Sasaki, Taillon, Assad, and Horton.
• Option C: Steele, Imanaga, Buehler, Bieber, Taillon, and Horton.
• Option D: Steele, Imanaga, Flaherty or Fried, Taillon, Assad, and Horton.

Ball Four

“[The offense] was really difficult to assess when you think about how Wrigley Field played this year. Last year, Wrigley was the seventh-best offensive park in baseball. This year it was 29th, and after last weekend it might be 30th.” – Hoyer

Isaac Paredes has become kind of a scapegoat and it’s unfair considering he played just 52 games with the Cubs after he was acquired from the Rays for Christopher Morel. The Cubs were mediocre before Paredes arrived and his acquisition was intended to solidify third base for the coming season. His home/road splits are indicative of the way Wrigley Field played last year.

• Home: Paredes hit .105/.177/.140 (.317 OPS) with only one extra-base hit (1 HR) and 12 RBI in 27 games.
• Away: The veteran third baseman hit .333/.448/.462 (.911 OPS) with eight extra-base hits (2 HRs) and 13 RBI in 25 games.

Because today is the non-tender deadline, some Cubs fans would like to see Hoyer part ways with Paredes. That’s short-sighted thinking, especially because the weather/wind at Wrigley Field was a true outlier. Paredes is entering arbitration for the second time and is club-controlled until 2028. He is expected to earn $6.9 million this year but seems like a good candidate for a pre-tender deal. The 25-year-old is also the perfect placeholder until Cam Smith is ready.

Trading Paredes would create a hole at third base and it’s probably not a good idea to simply anoint Matt Shaw as his replacement, especially if Smith is going to replace him the following season. As I mentioned yesterday, Chicago’s quickest path to the playoffs is through an improved bullpen. The Cubs need a catcher and could use another starter, but what the team needs most of all is an ability to maintain leads and close out wins with greater regularity.

The acquisitions of Eli Morgan and Rob Zastryzny will help Craig Counsell solidify his bullpen in the early months of next season. That’s big because the Cubs tend to hamstring themselves in April and May while waiting for the bullpen to naturally find its identity. Hoyer has been adept with midseason upgrades, so it is imperative that the Cubs have a reliable pecking order established to reduce early-season giveaway losses. The Cubs blew 33 leads last season, including seven in the 9th inning. They finished six games out of the final Wild Card spot.

It doesn’t make sense, therefore, to trade Paredes or Cody Bellinger this winter, because that runs counter to the team’s stated goal of winning 90+ games. Hoyer’s secondary goal is sustainability. That means keeping Paredes and Bellinger until Smith, Shaw, and Owen Caissie are ready to perform at a high level across a full season.