Roki Sasaki Expected to Sign in 2025, Agent Calls Dodgers Speculation ‘Poor Sportsmanship’
The biggest question about Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki remains where he will sign, but the question of when was at least partially answered on Wednesday. Speaking from MLB headquarters, commissioner Rob Manfred addressed the pitcher’s timeline while also commenting on rumors about a tacit agreement with the Dodgers.
“In my media training, they told me never to answer questions that involve suspicions, so I could pass all together,” Manfred said. “Just one clarification. It kind of looks like the way it’s going to shake out, the signing there — just because of the timing — will happen in the new pool period. So that’s kind of a significant fact.
“But you know, we’re going to see what happens there. If there’s any reason to believe that there was a violation of one of our rules, you can rest assured that we will thoroughly investigate and try to get to the bottom of it.”
For those who have missed the first few pieces we’ve written about this topic, Sasaki’s courtship is abnormal for a Japanese player because he’s subject to international amateur rules. That means he’s bound by the limits of international bonus pools just like the teenagers who sign out of Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, etc. The current signing period ends on December 15 and the next opens on January 15, 2025, so Sasaki can get a bigger bonus by waiting.
Therein lies the paradox of the whole situation. Choosing to leave Japan two years early and foregoing a nine-figure contract shows he’s not focused on money, yet folks still believe he’ll be swayed by a couple million in bonuses. In addition to their success and the presence of two Japanese superstars — which could actually be a detriment, by the way — many felt the Dodgers had the edge because they’ve still got $2.5 million remaining in their 2024 IFA pool.
That’s more a matter of correlation than causation, but the optics are understandably skewed, especially when we’re talking about a team that pulled off a wild deal with Shohei Ohtani last offseason. Ohtani never intended to sign with any other team and reportedly only offered his unique contract structure to them in order to significantly lower the AAV of his contract. Even though it doesn’t impact their ability Sasaki, who will earn the MLB minimum, there’s a sense that the Dodgers like to play fast and loose with the rules.
Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, isn’t too keen on that notion and the way it’s driven baseball executives to effectively tattle to the commissioner.
“While a bunch of executives who should know me better and do a lot of business with me insult my integrity by insinuating that I would be a part of some type of nefarious agreement,” Wolfe told The Athletic, “in reality, this is just poor sportsmanship.”
In addition to what Manfred stated, the reality of a tampering investigation effectively rules out the possibility of Sasaki singing this year. He’ll have to finalize his decision relatively quickly, however, as the posting deadline also falls on December 15. I suspect the Chiba Lotte Marines and his representatives will wait until as close to that date as possible since posted players have only 45 days to negotiate a deal with MLB clubs. Each day before that means decreasing the time he’s got once the new signing period opens, though that only matters if his mind isn’t made up earlier.
To that end, it’s fair to take a very skeptical view of what Wolfe and other Dodgers downplayers have said. If Sasaki knows he wants to end up there and can’t sign until January 15 either way, he may as well take his time meeting with other teams. He gets a free cross-country tour of the US and the Dodgers get plausible deniability of any untoward business practices. The only losers are the 29 other teams and the young ballplayers who could have their verbal agreements pulled in order to give Sasaki a bigger bonus.
My last thought here takes us back to the money and how it might actually matter, just not in terms of Sasaki’s personal wealth. A lot of folks chastise athletes for being greedy when they seek bigger contracts for record-setting total value or AAV. It’s definitely about the money in those cases, but it’s also about the pride. What if Sasaki is looking at what lengths teams are willing to go to in order to make him part of their organization?
Maybe it’s about the willingness to make him their lone international signing for that period, or making the effort to max out their bonus pool via trades. I think a team’s development infrastructure, culture, and long-term outlook matter more, but you never know what could end up being the deciding factor if Sasaki is indeed open to all destinations.
The Cubs have repeatedly shown the ability to sell Japanese stars on their vision, so they’ve got just as good a chance as anyone on a truly level playing field. And remember, this isn’t a situation in which they can simply outbid everyone. Not that any of you are worried about Jed Hoyer doing such a thing. Let’s say they do end up landing him. What do you think are the chances we get complaints from fans about them being cheap by targeting Sasaki over, say Corbin Burnes? Apples to elephants, but still.
Oh hey, shameless plug here for a fundraiser I started to help out some local baseball families this holiday season. It can be an expensive sport even if you’re not involved in travel ball, and I want to remove that barrier to a small extent. Whether it’s equipment, Dick’s gift cards, or a donation to Indy RBI, we can make a difference in kids’ lives. As of publication, we’re up to $225 on a goal of $500.