Frankie Montas may fit Jed Hoyer's plans. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash, File)

The Rundown: Using ‘Hoyermetrics’ to Predict Offseason Activity, BA Names Shaw Cubs’ Top Prospect, Sasaki Will Be Posted

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterNovember 13, 2024

“For a small piece of paper, it carries a lot of weight. Call it lean, mean, mean green.” – The O’Jays, For the Love of Money

Chicago sports teams have mentally and emotionally drained me. I won’t get into my issues with the Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, but the Cubs and White Sox, winners of six combined championships since the first World Series in 1903, keep me awake at night wondering why I do this. It’s hot stove season, and for the first time since free agency was granted to players, I don’t care. Thank you, Jed Hoyer.

There was a time when Ivy League executives who used business intelligence buzzwords seemed kinda hip, but doesn’t ol’ Jed feel more like a dinosaur these days? A common misconception exists that Hoyer is endeared to the antiquated concept of Moneyball, but that’s not the case. All colas are not Coke, all tissues are not Kleenex, and simply passing on baseball’s biggest stars to save a buck or two is not what Bill James and Billy Beane unleashed on MLB back in 2002.

Moneyball is deeply rooted in finding undiscovered market inefficiencies. If you’ve read the book, it also thoroughly explains finding value in the Rule 4 draft, gaming arbitration for extra draft picks (which is forbidden now), maximizing run-scoring potential through lineup construction, and the concept of win shares. None of that is the basis for the frugality with which Hoyer builds his rosters.

Finding value on the margins is a stuffy-sounding phrase that essentially means waiting for supply to outpace demand. For Chicago’s front office, the equilibrium price (where supply meets demand) is the financial ceiling for adding players. Intelligent spending simply refers to finding free agents at supply-side prices. One way to achieve that is to focus on market surplus, which is why the Cubs signed Dansby Swanson two years ago and why they are linked to so many starting pitchers this winter even though that was the team’s greatest strength in 2024.

The second method for finding value is to wait for a player’s market to crater, or, even better, hope it fails to develop. Shōta Imanaga kind of fell into Hoyer’s lap last season, but he’s still a great example. Similarly, the market for Cody Bellinger never evolved last season, which is why he returned to the Cubs. Fear of a reoccurrence probably encouraged him not to test the open market again. Last winter, Bellinger was ranked second by MLBTR of all available free agents behind Shohei Ohtani. Imanaga was No. 10, and both he and Bellinger signed for well below market value.

That data can help us predict who the Cubs might target this winter if not determine the likelihood of an acquisition. Let’s call it Hoyermetrics for lack of a better term.

Five of this year’s top 10 free agents are starting pitchers, led by Corbin Burnes with what is predicted to be a seven-year, $200 million contract. Though it seems everybody is looking for rotation additions, the teams most connected to starting pitching are the Red Sox, Mets, and Dodgers. The Cubs, Yankees, Tigers, and Orioles will also be active to a lesser degree. Burnes, Max Fried, Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Nick Pivetta, and Luis Severino are attached to this year’s qualifying offer. Hoyer is unlikely to sign any of them, though you could build a case for Burnes and Fried, and possibly Manaea.

Notable unencumbered free-agent pitchers include Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Nathan Eovaldi, Jack Flaherty, Frankie Montas, and Blake Snell. Here are the contract projections for each:

  • Snell – 4/$160 million.
  • Flaherty – 5/$115 million.
  • Eovaldi – 2/$44 million.
  • Buehler – 1/$15 million.
  • Bieber – 1/$12 million.
  • Montas – 2/$22 million.

We must also include Rōki Sasaki because he is going to be posted this winter.

The Dodgers will be all over Burnes and Sasaki. The latter will earn the league minimum (around $760,000) plus a signing bonus of up to $12 million. The Cubs could theoretically offer Sasaki about $1 million more than Los Angeles, but that’s not substantial enough to give them an edge. Of the remaining pitchers, Bieber, Buehler, and Eovaldi are probably contenders to join the Cubs. Eovaldi declined a $20 million option and must believe he can get at least a two-year deal, but $44 million seems about $14 million too high.

Hoyer will regularly circle back to Bieber and Montas to see if a market unfolds for either. Signing Sasaki would be a coup, but based on the departure of Kyle Hendricks and his 2023 salary ($10.5 million), Montas seems like the best bet to join Chicago with Bieber a close second. Hendricks was a bargain for the Angels at $2.5 million, and Hoyer may regret losing the veteran unless he can somehow land Sasaki. Finding value on the margins, therefore, offers no guarantee that those funds will be spent intelligently.

“The reason baseball calls itself a game is because it’s too screwed up to be a business.” – Jim Bouton

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

Happy Felix Unger Day to all who celebrate. Unger eventually moved in with Mets fan and sportswriter Oscar Madison.

Ball Four

Travis d’Arnaud was an interesting acquisition by the Angels. The veteran catcher agreed to a two-year, $12 million deal with Anaheim that will affect Hoyer’s offseason pursuits.

First and foremost, d’Aranud gives the Angels a leg up in signing Fried. The two work very well together, and Fried’s career ERA is a spiffy 2.62 in their 68 games together. Fried also prefers to sign with a West Coast team. The addition of d’Arnaud could make Logan O’Hoppe expendable, and he’s been connected to the Cubs previously. That doesn’t seem likely, though the Angels might be interested in Hoerner if he is truly available.

It’s still tough to find a match using Hoerner and O’Hoppe as centerpieces, especially if the Cubs have to include one of Miguel Amaya or Moises Ballesteros. Something could develop, however, and it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Central Intelligence

Wednesday Stove

Count the Red Sox among the teams hoping to court Soto this winter.

Boston is also expected to make a run at Fried.

Garrett Crochet is the hottest name on the trade market.

The Dodgers are the best fit for Burnes, but Snell, Crochet, or Sasaki make much more sense.

The Mets seem to be the best for free-agent slugger Pete Alonso.

The Unbearable Darkness of Being (a Bears fan)

The Ego Hates Losing – Even to God

The five-year records of Chicago’s Big Four sports franchises:

  1. Cubs 345-363 (.487)
  2. Bulls 178-205 (.465)
  3. White Sox 311-397 (.439)
  4. Bears 28-48 (.368)

It’s crazy to me that the White Sox lost 121 games last season and yet they’re only 34 games worse than the Cubs in that five-year window.

Take Time to Breathe

I want to shed 500 words per article so I am thinking of dividing the current format into two separate pieces, using the Ball Four section to complement The Rundown. That would eliminate the preamble and the current Ball Four section from this format to create the companion piece. Thoughts?

Extra Innings

Sammy Sosa turns 56 today. I hope the Ricketts family finds it in their hearts to finally bring him home.

They Said It

  • “We want to be a destination for Japanese players. I think we treat them incredibly well. We’re willing to go above and beyond to make sure their transition goes smoothly. We probably made some mistakes along the way and improved some things with Seiya. Our hope is that it becomes Seiya and Shota and many more.” – Hoyer
  • “We still think [hendricks] can pitch. We think there’s a lot left in the tank. He’s a year removed from being very good, and we don’t see any reason he can’t get back to that point, where he was in 2023. He’s not somebody that relies on velocity, he can really pitch.” – Angels GM Perry Minasian

Wednesday Walk-Up Song

It’s not easy living in the Hell that comes with supporting Chicago’s professional sports teams.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterNovember 13, 2024
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