Another Report Has Cubs in ‘Midtier Pitching Market’ While Possibly Dangling Hoerner, Bellinger
File this one under stuff we already know but will write about anyway because, well, there’s nothing else going on outside of Matt Shaw. As you’ve no doubt already read here and elsewhere, the Cubs will avoid the very top of free agency in favor of finding value around the margins when it comes to pitching and position player depth. Whether you call that “upper middle class” or “midtier” may be splitting hairs a bit, though Jeff Passan’s use of the latter term ($) indicates the Cubs may not even be aiming as high as others thought.
Max Fried has been the available pitcher most commonly tied to the Cubs, but he received a qualifying offer from the Braves and would cost valuable international pool money plus two draft picks in addition to a nine-figure salary. That is very important to a team expected to be in the hunt for Roki Sasaki, who is subject to the restrictions of international amateur free agency due to his youth. Fried isn’t alone in a market that could be stalled by Sasaki’s decision, as several other pitchers were tabbed with a QO.
Among the five starters Passan listed in his upper-middle tier, three are saddled with penalties: Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, and Luis Severino. The ESPN+ article links the Cubs specifically to Pivetta, though it’s hard to see them targeting him unless and until Sasaki goes elsewhere and other options likewise evaporate. Signing a QO guy doesn’t seem like something Jed Hoyer’s computer system would spit out as an option.
Yusei Kikuchi is another possibility in this group, as is Nathan Eovaldi, but age and demand may take both beyond the Cubs’ value threshold as well. This is one of those situations where Hoyer really needs to get it right if he’s giving up a big paycheck, two picks, and $1 million in bonus money. One could argue that the pool money is even more important in the event they don’t land Sasaki, as it would give the Cubs more available funds to spend on international prospects who may miss out on a deal because of the Japanese phenom.
Of course, the Cubs and other teams could always acquire more pool money via trades. Perhaps that would be a way for them to unload more of Cody Bellinger‘s $27.5 million for 2025 and his $25 million player option for ’26 that carries a $5 million buyout. Such a move might not be contingent on Juan Soto‘s destination, especially if the Yankees are looking for a lefty-batting first baseman who also brings good vibes to replace Anthony Rizzo. Other teams could see similar value, not to mention Bellinger’s ability to play at least two outfield spots.
Nico Hoerner is also mentioned as a potential trade chip, and he actually takes up a much bigger chunk of that section from Passan. Shaw’s emergence is part of the story here, but the Cubs might be selling a little low in light of Hoerner’s recent forearm surgery. As I’ve mentioned here many times already, I’d much prefer they find a way to move Isaac Paredes and let Shaw take the hot corner. They could also have Shaw take second while Hoerner works back, then reassess once he’s back.
The Cubs had already painted themselves into a corner with their full roster of good-not-great players and a number of prospects ready to come up. The Sasaki situation only muddies the waters further, making it more difficult to pick a lane and put their foot on the gas. How much faith do you have in Hoyer to make the right decisions this winter when it comes to building a consistent 90-win organization?