AP Photo/Chris Pizzello

The Rundown: An Election-Themed Opener, Hoyer Seeking Value Adds, Cole Opts Out Only to Opt Back In

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterNovember 5, 2024

“Don’t believe me if I tell you, not a word of this is true.” – Thin Lizzy, Don’t Believe a Word

Election Day is here, and it’s too bad that we can’t elect the person charged with running the Cubs. Not that we’d do any better than Tom Ricketts, of course, but perhaps we could go with our guts if we knew the candidate’s agenda going in. Jed Hoyer is in the last year of his contract, so let’s review his policies as they relate to today’s presidential election. I won’t grade him, but you can decide if he has succeeded enough to earn your vote.

  1. Economics – Hoyer’s payroll in 2024 was approximately $230 million and the Cubs won 83 games. That calculates to $2.77 million per win, which was the seventh-most in MLB. However, the six teams ahead of Chicago all made the playoffs. Hoyer may have mastered the art of intelligent spending (clears throat), but he wasn’t as efficient as the Padres, Royals, Brewers, Orioles, Tigers, and Guardians, who all allocated less payroll to win more games. Hoyer also outspent every team in the NL Central yet still believes his team needs to outperform its metrics to achieve sustainable success and win the division. Make it make sense.
  2. Foreign Policy – You can make a case that Shōta Imanaga and Seiya Suzuki were the best players on this year’s squad. Imanaga finished 15-3 but the Cubs were shut out in two of his losses. He issued a scant 28 walks while striking out 174 batters in 173.1 innings, but oddly, Imanaga had no intentional bases on balls. Suzuki batted .283 — best among Chicago’s regulars — and finished with 3.5 WAR, good for fourth-best on the team. He totaled 21 home runs and 73 RBI, pacing Chicago with an .848 OPS and an OPS+ of 138. The right fielder also missed 29 games due to injury. Christian Bethancourt posted a 126 OPS+ after the Cubs acquired him, but Isaac Paredes and Tomás Nido were very subpar as Cubs. On the pitching side, Javier Assad and Jorge López were among the team’s best arms, though Hector Néris cost Chicago five wins. Buyer Beware: Clay Holmes is a free-agent reliever who blew 13 saves in 2024. Hard pass.
  3. Immigration – I’ll redefine this platform policy to account for the matriculation of prospects to the majors. Most of Chicago’s rookies except Imanaga started slowly. That said, Hoyer deserves a higher mark here than you might believe. Pete Crow-Armstrong was hitting .180 on July 26 but batted .284 with seven home runs and 29 RBI in his final 176 at-bats. Likewise, Miguel Amaya was struggling to hit .200 in mid-July but finished with 1.8 WAR. Porter Hodge essentially replaced Neris as the team’s closer and pitched to a 1.88 ERA with nine saves and 52 punchouts across 43 innings. Ben Brown looked like a rotation mainstay before getting hurt. Daniel Palencia was the outlier, however, as he was tagged for 10 earned runs in 14.2 innings. His 3.46 FIP suggests his 6.14 ERA was largely based on poor fielding.
  4. Healthcare – The Pirates led MLB with 29 players who hit the IL, but the Cubs were a very close second at 27 and Chicago’s players missed a total of 1,148 games in 2024. Suzuki, Brown, Cody Bellinger, Justin Steele, Jordan Wicks, Julian Merryweather, and Adbert Alzolay all spent significant time on the injury list. Chicago may be without second baseman Nico Hoerner to start the 2025 season, while Cade Horton is recovering from a lat strain that has sidelined him since June. Hoerner had flexor tendon surgery last month.
  5. Education – The Cubs have bragged that they eschew traditional scouting in favor of in-house evaluation systems, but Hoyer has come up short the last two seasons, winning 83 games in back-to-back years while failing to make the playoffs. He has stated that his players need to outperform his metrics but most of the team posted honest numbers. The Cubs lack players capable of posting five or more wins against replacement and that is a big reason why Chicago endured several team slumps all season.

Polls are open until at least 6pm EST today so cast those votes! I’m Michael Canter and I endorse this message.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

This is the only stolen win I’d like to see today. That’s a vote for election integrity rather than any particular candidate. The entire country loses and looks shamefully idiotic when ethics compromise the voting process. We’ve endured that type of annoying rhetoric since Bush v. Gore 24 years ago and nothing was more embarrassing than 2020. Give me Michael Busch vs. MacKenzie Gore instead.

Ball Four

I’ll keep it light here today and give you four GM Meeting predictions.

  1. Boras will try to convince the entire world that Juan Soto is worth more money than Shohei Ohtani.
  2. The Phillies have yet to win a ring in the Bryce Harper era and their lineup lacks good contact hitters. They might not sign Soto this week, but they’ll come hard and fast and will be deep in conversations all winter. Philadelphia’s owners have no issues with spending and are willing to exceed the third luxury tax threshold of $281 million.
  3. The Dodgers will move quickly to sign Willy Adames.
  4. Hoyer will seek value at the margins and leave San Antonio with one of Manaea, Minter, Walker Buehler, Colin Rea, Blake Treinen, or Jeff Hoffman in tow. A lot of analysts think Fried will end up in Chicago, but I believe he will sign a deal that greatly exceeds his projections, and his underlying peripherals warrant that. I can also see the Cubs completing a trade for Angels catcher Logan O’Hoppe.

Central Intelligence

Election Day Stove

New White Sox manager Will Venable is asking fans to move on from their disastrous 2024 season.

Gerrit Cole initially opted out but will remain with the Yankees under the terms of the original contract. He’ll earn $144 million over the next four years.

Clayton Kershaw declined his option and is now a free agent. The left-hander will eventually re-sign with the Dodgers.

Nick Martinez, Nick Pivetta, Luis Severino, and Christian Walker were among 13 free agents who received qualifying offers from their clubs. Players who accept the offer will earn $21.05 million in 2025.

Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi declined his player option and will enter free agency, as expected.

Extra Innings

Z is taking his cues from Shota, I see.

We, The People

“Next to religion, baseball has furnished a greater impact on American life than any other institution.” – Herbert Hoover

“Now, it’s been nine years since your last title, which must have felt like an eternity for Yankees fans. I think other teams would be just fine with a spell like that. The Cubs, for example.” – Barack Obama in 2009

The Ricketts family exemplifies a dual allegiance today, with siblings contributing millions of dollars to Republican and Democratic causes. That immersion into bipartisan politics is deeply woven into the fabric of America’s pastime. MLB is one of the rare institutions that transcends partisanship, attracting both Democrats and Republicans and uniting fans across the nation. You may not like specific players, executives, or owners (or other fans) based on their political preferences, but I doubt it greatly diminishes your love of the game. It’s never interfered with my love of the sport, though I willingly admit social media can be a bit trying during each election cycle.

A Last-Minute Non-Endorsement

More than ever, the Cubs will rely on data, video, and models ($) for their evaluations of players according to Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “The Cubs are actively interviewing prospective candidates and looking for new talent in spaces such as R&D and player development, on top of the investments and hires already made in their efforts to find and develop international talent.”

Isn’t this the same anti-scouting mechanism Hoyer has used since succeeding Theo Epstein? Has he not watched “Trouble With the Curve?” C’mon man! I have no problem with a deep analytic dive but you still need scouts. I’ll take a seasoned bird dog over a Harvard-degreed QA in most instances. Even Clint Eastwood, though it might have been more fun to watch Al Pacino in that role.

PS — I need to read Evan Altman a little more thoroughly. More often than not he is the voice of reason in these types of instances.

They Said It

  • “Mostly, [Bellinger’s return] gives us clarity. Now we know what our roster looks like. Before that, there was some uncertainty…Anytime a really good player decides to stay with you, that’s good news.” – Hoyer

Tuesday Walk-Up Song

Happy Constituents Day. As we say in Chicago, “Vote early and vote often.”

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterNovember 5, 2024
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