Cubs Again Figure to Prioritize ‘Upper Middle-Class’ Pitchers in Free Agency

Does anyone else think of the Cubs as some gaudy, nouveau-riche McMansion built on the site of a more stately home surrounded by sprawling testaments to wealth? But, like, the Cubs’ home was constructed somewhat shoddily because the owners wanted to spare some expenses by eschewing top-of-the-line materials. They’re living either above or below their means depending on how you look at it, which is why they’ve got Fords in the driveway when the neighbors are shopping for luxury rides.

Okay, enough belaboring of the analogy. The point here is that the Cubs don’t figure to be swimming in the deep end of the free-agent pool, meaning you can forget about them pursuing Juan Soto. Extending what would likely have to be the franchise’s largest contract ever to 30-year-old righty Corbin Burnes likewise appears to be a big stretch. I’d argue it’d be better to offer double or even triple to Soto over Burnes, but that’s just me.

Even a big trade — either for a superstar-level player or just a top-line catcher — seems like a pretty distant possibility due to Jed Hoyer’s general aversion to high risk. One could argue that having a bevy of top prospects already at Triple-A would make moving one or more of them that much easier, though the front office’s calculating ways temper what might otherwise be an aggressive bent. So while I’m leaving room to be surprised, there’s a strong sense that the Cubs will once again pursue, as Patrick Mooney called it, the “upper-middle class of free agents.”

The first two names mentioned by Mooney in that article are Max Fried and Nathan Eovaldi, names we’ve discussed here in the past and that have come up frequently in early speculation elsewhere. Another option generating recent buzz is Walker Buehler, a bounceback candidate whose injury history has many practically screaming that Hoyer will undoubtedly make a play for him. Buehler missed all of the 2023 season and has pitched just 140.1 innings over the last three years combined, including a two-month stay in the middle of this season after coming back in early May.

Then there’s Shane Bieber, who was frequently brought up as a trade target prior to undergoing elbow reconstruction in April. The Guardians had apparently demanded an exceedingly high return for the former Cy Young winner and it cost them big, especially when you consider they were without him anyway in an overperforming season for the team. It sounds like Bieber’s procedure was indeed full-blown Tommy John rather than the internal brace option that typically results in a shorter recovery, but he still feels he’s in line to be at least mostly ready for spring training.

“Yeah, I think it’ll be semi-normal,” Bieber recently told Rob Bradford of Baseball Isn’t Boring. “Obviously, there’s a lot of unknowns, there’s a lot up in the air, so we’ll see. All I can do right now, I know it’s cliche and I wish I could give you more, is I can just focus on what I’m doing right now. I gotta get healthy. I feel healthy, but I gotta continue to build up, get my new elbow acclimated to throwing hard.”

That uncertainly could mean the righty will be looking for a shorter prove-it deal for his age-30 season in order to set himself up for a bigger deal to carry him into the twilight of his career. He looked tremendous over two starts with a failing elbow and his fastball velocity was up just a bit over the previous two seasons, so it’s reasonable to believe he can come back strong at some point in 2025. Given their existing rotation depth, a value play for Bieber makes sense for the Cubs.

I voiced concerns about the possibility that the Cubs would prioritize pitching, as giving Burnes a monster deal could preclude appropriate spending on other areas of need. However, being a bit more conservative on that front means they’ll have more than enough to splurge a little on the bullpen and on a power bat or two, maybe even an upgrade behind the plate. And despite what I said earlier, I think they will move at least one top-10 prospect. Will that be enough to get them invited to a party with the Dodgers and Yankees?

I’m pretty skeptical of that, but the first step is getting to a point where they can look down at the Brewers in the standings for the first time in way too long.