Several Non-Tender Candidates Among Cubs’ 14 Arb-Eligible Players
Though it’ll be a while before any decisions must officially be made, I want to get into this now because MLB Trade Rumors just dropped its 2025 arbitration salary projections. Unlike free agent projections — I can’t let go of the idea that MLBTR had Cody Bellinger getting 12 years, $264 million — these figures tend to be a little more accurate. That doesn’t necessarily make things any easier for Jed Hoyer and the Cubs, especially with 14 arb-eligible players this winter.
This isn’t just about money, it’s about the value of a given roster spot. And for a Cubs team that needs to improve the big league roster through either promotion or free agency, there are a lot of guys who could end up being non-tendered for the sake of flexibility. Based on my initial look at the list, I’m guessing they’ll tender contracts to six players (MLBTR service time estimates).
- Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2M
- Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3M
- Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5M
- Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K
- Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K
- Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9M
- Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3M
- Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9M
- Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4M
- Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4M
- Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9M
- Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1M
- Patrick Wisdom (4.058): $3M
- Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4M
I started out with the MLBTR list and made my selections there before re-sorting, so it’s purely coincidental that these guys all happen to line up alphabetically. Rather than breaking them all down individually, I’ll put them mainly in groups to save a little time and energy.
No-brainers
I don’t think we need to provide any explanation for why the Cubs would keep one of their best starters at just $6.4 million, so we won’t worry about Steele. Likewise, they’re not cutting Paredes loose. Could they use this as a way to establish his value before trading him to make room for Matt Shaw? Absolutely. The org’s top prospect is ready for the bigs, it’s just a matter of how the Cubs opt to make room for him.
The most obvious solution would be to trade either Paredes or Nico Hoerner, and I had been leaning more toward the latter. As consistent as he’s been, Hoerner’s lack of power is at odds with what the Cubs need and it also limits his ability to outperform projections. That’s something Jed Hoyer brought up a lot during his end-of-season press conference and it’ll factor heavily in the club’s offseason plans.
Paredes has a lower floor and Shaw would almost certainly mean taking a hit on the defensive front, but both have a larger potential delta on the high end. Then again, Hoerner’s higher batting average and his superior speed provide more certainty than Paredes should the Cubs view Shaw as a legit piece for 2025.
Bullpen keepers
I’ve got three relievers listed here, though I think the Cubs could go either way on a couple of them. Pearson would get my money if I had to bet on just one, with Thompson and Merryweather falling below due to health and other factors. One of the few things Hoyer was clear on during his presser was the need to be better with bullpen construction. Having two guys with high-leverage experience at a total of $2.3 million makes other decisions easier.
Tweeners
I guess making this plural was a mistake since Tauchman is the only one left. That said, I could easily move Thompson or Merryweather here, plus you’ve got some guys who just missed the cut. Wingenter probably fits here as well. Tauchman’s status could be determined by Cody Bellinger‘s choice, though the Palatine Pounder may be safe either way.
If Bellinger stays, the Cubs won’t want to call up a top outfield prospect just as a backup. And if Bellinger leaves, they’ll still need a capable bench bat/outfielder.
Bullpen Casualties
This part really sucks for the second guy on the list, but it seemed like a foregone conclusion for Alzolay once it was announced that he needed elbow reconstruction. He won’t be able to pitch next year and the Cubs may have their closer of the future in Porter Hodge. Almonte doesn’t have nearly the same emotional tie to the team and fans, but he’s in the same boat following right labrum surgery in July.
Herget and Wingenter were waiver pickups who combined for 8.1 innings, with all of those belonging to the latter pitcher. It’s hard to see the Cubs bringing back either journeyman reliever on something other than a minors deal. Brewer may have sealed his fate when he fractured his left hand punching the dugout wall in frustration following a rough outing in July.
No more chances
Wisdom and Madrigal have served as examples of the current regime’s failure to properly round out the roster, as both have been asked/expected to do more than they were capable of. Madrigal’s abject lack of power would have been okay if he hit like Luis Arráez, but that’s never been the case outside of 109 PAs as a rookie on the South Side. Wisdom hit well in the pinch and his power made him a potential game-changer, but his big strikeout rate and extreme fly-ball tendencies killed him this season.
Though Wisdom’s 33.9% K-rate was lower than usual, hitting the ball in the air at a 66% clip — the highest in MLB by a wide margin — did him zero favors. Even worse, that rate jumped to 70.4% at Wrigley with the wind blowing in more than ever. That was another of Hoyer’s talking points on Tuesday, for what it’s worth. Even if that trend eases next season, the Cubs are likely to want that roster spot for either flexibility or more consistent power.
The Backstop
Even though he massively outperformed projections and his promotion indirectly led to the retirement of Bryce Windham, the Cubs seem inclined to pursue a catcher who can serve in at least a 50/50 timeshare with Miguel Amaya. Given their fruitless pursuits of Logan O’Hoppe and Danny Jansen, I expect them to once again explore the trade market in search of an upgrade.
The other factor here is that the Cubs have several top prospects who finished the season at either Triple-A or the bigs, and not all of them can remain with the organization. I mean, they can in theory, it’s just that several of them are at least very close to being ready and there aren’t going to be enough spots with regular playing time.
Final Predictions
I think the Cubs will add a mid-rotation starter and at least one late-inning reliever on a multiyear deal, plus a power bat who can serve in a role similar to Wisdom. The profile of that hitter will increase if Bellinger departs. That could mean a run at Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is predicted to get nearly $30 million in his final year of arbitration. One of Paredes or Hoerner will be moved, and I’ll stick with my previous thoughts that Kevin Alcántara and James Triantos are good possibilities to be moved this winter as well.