AP Photo/Paul Beaty

The Rundown: Cubs Season Ends Quietly, Hoyer Addressing Press Tuesday, Braves/Mets/D-Backs Still in Postseason Contention

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 30, 2024

“Sit around and wonder what tomorrow will bring… Maybe a diamond ring.” – Traveling Wilburys, End of the Line

I would have loved to link the video to that Traveling Wilburys song but the Society of European Stage Authors and Composers pulled about 1.5 million songs from YouTube over a performance rights dispute. I suppose it’s too bad that SESAC doesn’t own the performance-challenged Cubs, am I right? Ouch…too soon?

The Cubs moved quietly into the offseason with the same 83-79 (.513) record they finished with last season, which seems odd because they replaced Marcus Stroman with Shōta Imanaga, Eric Hosmer, Trey Mancini, Jared Young, and Matt Mervis with Michael Busch, and, of course, swapped manager David Ross for Craig Counsell. Jed Hoyer also signed free agent closer Hector Néris, who was unceremoniously waived 14 appearances shy of earning a guaranteed 2025 contract.

The story of this season will be the awful slump in May and June that temporarily dropped the Cubs into last place. Chicago was 23-28 in one-run games this year, and for the third consecutive season played much better in the second half than the first. Things could have been worse, just ask any White Sox fan. The two Chicago franchises are separated by 42 wins, but does it matter? Once again, neither team is going to the postseason.

Hoyer now enters the final year of his contract and has some tough decisions to make this winter. One that is out of his hands, at least for now, regards Cody Bellinger. The outfielder has the right to opt out of his contract but has yet to commit to staying or leaving. Two weeks ago, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that Bellinger was “fully expected” to bypass this winter’s opt-out. That doesn’t seem to be set in stone, however. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported a few days later that Bellinger has yet to decide ($) whether he’ll test the market.

Hoyer, who attempted to thread the needle between competing and retooling, will be slightly handcuffed if Bellinger decides to stay. Pete Crow-Armstrong has established himself as an everyday centerfielder and Busch is Chicago’s first baseman. Few teams will pay a player $27.5 million to work as a DH, and let’s face it, Bellinger is too good defensively to be a bat-only regular.

The Cubs won’t be seeking lineup help in free agency or trade unless they move Isaac Paredes, who reportedly had a robust market at the end of July. Paredes hit .223 with three home runs and 25 RBI in 212 plate appearances after joining the Cubs. The third baseman has one year left on his deal and Cam Smith, based on his current trajectory, will replace him in 2026, if not sometime next season.

Hoyer will reportedly seek a premium starter to replace Kyle Hendricks, who, according to Sportrac, is in line for a three-year, $20.4 million deal. Corbin Burnes has been connected to the Cubs and his AAV will exceed that number. Burnes would be a nice addition but a rotation of Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, and one of Ben Brown or Cade Horton should be sufficient. On the other hand, Taillon, Assad, and Brown have decent trade value if Hoyer decides to splurge.

Chicago’s much-maligned bullpen was a strength down the stretch. Porter Hodge should enter 2025 as the team’s closer, though Tyson Miller and Nate Pearson will give Counsell plenty of late-inning relievers. I expect the nomadic A’s to trade Mason Miller this winter or sometime next season, so perhaps the Cubs will kick the tires on his availability.

I’d urge Cubs fans to temper their expectations this winter. Hoyer doesn’t have a lot of options and often works too deliberately to generate any offseason fervor. Juan Soto is not coming to Chicago and Burnes will get better offers elsewhere. Bellinger is the key to this winter, but Hoyer can’t really impact whether he leaves or stays. The front office will likely run it back with mostly the same squad in 2025 and hope the team will maintain the .563 clip at which they finished this season. That’s a 91-win pace, which would meet the team’s stated goal for next year.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

This bromance is a beautiful thing.

Ball Four

Hendricks ended his season with a performance that mirrored his career with the Cubs. The Professor pitched 7.1 innings of two-hit, shutout baseball, retiring 22 Reds batters on 81 pitches. He could have been working on a no-hitter.

Hendricks now has 37 scoreless starts on his résumé. How good is that? Fergie Jenkins had 34 scoreless starts in his Cubs career, and Jake Arrieta and Greg Maddux had 29 apiece. Hendricks was also vintage all month, posting a 2.89 ERA with three wins across 28 innings in five September starts. He’s three wins shy of 100 career wins.

Central Intelligence

How About That!

The 2024 regular season is not yet over thanks to Hurricane Helene. The Mets and Braves will play a doubleheader today that will determine the fates of several teams. New York, Atlanta, and Arizona are all tied for the final two Wild Card spots, though the Diamondbacks are at a slight disadvantage. Both the Mets and Braves hold the tiebreaker over the D-backs by winning their season series. Arizona, therefore needs one team to sweep today to make the playoffs.

Here are the numbers behind the season of shame on Chicago’s South Side.

Shohei Ohtani failed in his bid to win the NL Triple Crown. The superstar did finish with career highs in homers (54), RBI (130), stolen bases (59), total bases (411), and hits (197).

Luis Arráez, who batted .314 to Ohtani’s .310, won his third consecutive batting title, all with three different teams.

Tarik Skubal of the Tigers did win the AL Triple Crown for pitchers. He paced the junior circuit with 18 wins, 228 strikeouts, and a 2.39 ERA.

Let’s Light That Stove

The rumors below are attributed to Bob Nightengale of USA Today

Skip Schumaker, who officially informed the Marlins and his players that he had no interest in returning before departing Friday for a family emergency, is the top managerial target of the Reds. Ross, who was dismissed by the Cubs last winter, is also expected to be interviewed.

If All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso doesn’t return to the Mets, rival executives believe he will wind up with the Mariners or the Cubs.

White Sox starter Garrett Crochet says he’s interested in signing a long-term contract extension, but ChiSox GM Chris Getz still fully intends to trade him this winter, with the Phillies among the teams expressing interest.

Brewers shortstop Willy Adames’s price tag continues to go up. The soon-to-be free agent has 32 homers with 111 RBI and 21 stolen bases, becoming one of only four shortstops in MLB history to hit 30 homers, drive in 100 runs, and steal 20 bases.

Postseason Schedule

  • AL Wild Card: The Astros (No. 3 Seed) will play the Tigers (6) and the Orioles (4) play the Royals (5).
  • NL Wild Card: The Brewers (3) and Padres (4) are waiting on the results of today’s doubleheader.

Extra Innings

You’re dead wrong if you think there’s no crying in baseball. Hendricks deserves to retire as a Cub no matter where his path takes him.

Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust

It’s officially football season in Chicago. Make sure you follow us at Bears Insider.

They Said It

  • “I feel so lucky and so happy. I had my whole family here today in the stands, I’m sure they’re crying. Just for the fans to give me that — from the moment I showed up to the ballpark today, kind of celebrating me. Part of me hates it. I hate all that attention. But at the end, I know I have to soak in these moments. That’s what the Wrigley fans are there for. They are so special. They’re the best in the world. To play here at Wrigley Field, I’m just such a lucky guy.” – Hendricks
  • “You think about it, but at the end of the day, I haven’t really even sat down with my wife and talked about [my options]. And during the season, you just focus on playing, at least for me. I wake up and I’m going to go out and play, and that’s what I focus on. … I honestly have no idea.” – Bellinger
  • “I know we’re good enough [to make the playoffs], trust me, that’s what’s the frustrating part. I’ve been on good teams, and I know this team is good enough. Throughout a 162-game season, stuff happens and you have to kind of understand how to manage those bumps in the road.” – Bellinger
  • “Seasons are sacred. You don’t take them for granted. I told the team this: ‘We’re fortunate and blessed to get chances, to get to wear the uniform.’ So, when you don’t accomplish all your goals, there’s a bitter taste in your mouth.” – Counsell
  • “That is my job — to help us win baseball games — so I should be expected to do that, absolutely. We didn’t do it this year. We won 83 games. That wasn’t enough to make the playoffs. “ – Counsell

Monday Walk-Up Song

I found a video that wasn’t de-listed and its messaging is Cubs-appropriate. Do I get some kind of financial bonus for that?

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 30, 2024
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