Will Cody Bellinger Return to Cubs or Seek Bigger Payday in Free Agency?
Cody Bellinger was projected as one of the biggest free-agent targets last winter, with one prominent outlet predicting him to land as much as 12 years and $264 million. And while that was ludicrous to the tune of a nine-figure increase over other optimistic guesses, there were rumors that agent Scott Boras was seeking close to $200 million and/or 10 years for his client. Nothing approaching those asks materialized, so Bellinger returned to Chicago on a three-year, $80 million deal that allows Bellinger to opt out after either of the first two seasons.
The consensus at the time seemed to be that it was good value for the Cubs as long as the versatile fielder performed at something approaching his 2023 levels and then opted out immediately. Now that Jed Hoyer has admitted signing Bellinger effectively pushed payroll into luxury tax penalty territory, or at least illustrated a willingness to do so, it seems as though just about everyone wants Bellinger to test free agency.
His average annual value will go up a little because he’ll get a $2.5 million buyout for 2025 and his $25 million salary for 2026 won’t offset his higher paydays from the first two years. But if the Cubs already expected to go over, the penalties on a few million dollars aren’t prohibitive. Well, except for what it means for the possibility of signing a free agent who’s been tagged with a qualifying offer. They may not have even been able to save enough with trades or waiver dumps to get under should Bellinger walk.
So, wait, wouldn’t that mean the front office should want him to opt out? Not when his departure would mean $25-ish million in freed-up payroll and a roster spot that can be used by a much cheaper alternative from the system. Pete Crow-Armstrong has firmly established himself as the team’s center fielder of the future and Michael Busch looks like he can handle himself at first base. That leaves right field as the only option, and Bellinger is hardly irreplaceable from a defensive standpoint out there.
He’s perfectly fine, to be sure, but he’s gone to the IL twice due to injuries suffered from encounters with outfield walls and isn’t going to get faster as he ages. As they look to the future and how to set the organization up for sustained success, it’s hard to believe Cubs management would prefer Bellinger over Owen Caissie or Kevin Alcántara.
Bellinger himself would prefer to opt out because it means he’s got another crack at the big payday he missed out on last winter. The same is true for Boras, who may be looking to atone for what ended up being a subpar offseason for him as several of his top clients ended up waiting most of the offseason only to sign for much less than initially expected. He might also be feeling himself even more than usual in the wake of Matt Chapman‘s recent extension with the Giants, which nearly triples the three-year, $54 million deal he signed earlier in the year.
Even though Bellinger has been far less consistent than Chapman, he’s two years younger and might want to try to strike while the iron is hot. Again, a lot of that will go back to how Boras feels about what the market will tolerate. Like last year, this winter will see one clearly elite player and then a huge gap before getting to a group of solid but flawed options. Also like last year, many coveted players employ Boras to negotiate on their behalves.
As good as he has been for the most part when it comes to getting top dollar for his clients, the man turns 72 at the start of the offseason and may have lost a step. Even if he’s not personally handling every aspect of each deal, it’s reasonable to believe not every player is given the same priority. I could be wrong, but I have to imagine Juan Soto is going to require more effort than Bellinger, Pete Alonso, and the rest of their cadre. Things could really get sticky if multiple free agents are still waiting on offers months into free agency.
That didn’t end well for lefty Jordan Montgomery, who missed all of spring training waiting on a bigger offer before getting $25 million for one year with the Diamondbacks. He triggered a $20 million player option with his 10th start, then got a $2.5 million bump with his 18th start, but he’s been moved to the bullpen four starts short of getting another such increase. You and I would be happy to make $50 million in two years, but it’s not a great situation for Montgomery, who fired Boras soon after the ink dried on his contract.
“I don’t know, obviously Boras kind of butchered it,” Montgomery told Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald. “So I’m just trying to move on from the offseason and try to forget it.”
So does Bellinger look at Chapman or Montgomery as a blueprint for his own future? I don’t think you make it to this level of the game without having supreme confidence in yourself, so my guess is that the former is viewed as something of a precedent and Bellinger opts out. He’s got a 112 wRC+ and six homers over his last 149 plate appearances and continues to lower his career-best strikeout rate even with reduced offensive numbers of late, so his value remains at least decent.
I remain as concerned about his anemic batted-ball numbers as I was last year — yes, even when accounting for his two-strike approach — and I believe other teams do as well. That said, I think he can do better than two years and $52.5 million. More importantly, I think Bellinger and Boras think that. And now that I’ve written it out, it’s as good as guaranteed that he’ll return.