Let’s Examine Both Sides of Isaac Paredes Coin Following Big Trade

The Cubs pulled off a bit of a shocker Sunday afternoon, acquiring former farmhand Isaac Paredes from Tampa in exchange for Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge, and righty pitching prospect Ty Johnson. Morel had started Sunday’s game in Kansas City as the DH and may have actually found out about the trade after much of the public since he was seen saying his goodbyes in the dugout well after the reports first broke. The same was true for Bigge in Iowa and presumably Johnson in South Bend, though not quite as many eyes were on those two.

My initial reaction to the deal was that it’s a lot to give up for what I categorized as a “modest upgrade,” a concept that ruffled a few feathers over on X. Comparing season stat lines or pointing out that Paredes was a 2024 All-Star will make it look like a big leap forward for the Cubs, and perhaps that’s what it’ll end up being, but the game isn’t played on paper. And while outcomes are likewise not determined by underlying advanced metrics, some aspects of Parades’ game may not translate as well to Wrigley and the NL Central.

So as everyone seems to be busy digging trenches from which to better defend their respective positions, I thought it made sense to look at this deal from both sides. At the risk of sharing my conclusion early, I’m pretty sure it’s going to arrive at the fact that this may end up working out well for the Cubs and Rays even if neither team gets an optimal return.

Heads

The most obvious improvements for the Cubs come in plate discipline, with Paredes bringing elite contact numbers to the team. His 16.9% whiff rate is in the 88th percentile among all MLB hitters, just a wee bit better than Morel’s 32.2% rate (9th percentile). Paredes is in the 83rd percentile for strikeout rate (15.9%) and the 91st percentile for walk rate (12.1%), and everything about his previous performance indicates those numbers are sustainable.

This move also upgrades the defense at third base, where Morel was quite possibly the worst in the majors. His -12 outs above average are twice as many as Jeimer Candelario for second-highest (lowest?) and his -5 defensive runs saved are tied with Candelario for third-worst. Kinda ironic that we’re talking about the other half of the 2017 trade that sent Paredes to the Tigers, no?

Paredes is far from the top of the leaderboards at 0 DRS and 1 OAA, but the bar was set so low that he’ll clear it easily. Like the offensive numbers above, his glovework should remain perfectly cromulent through the remainder of his club control and beyond. He’s virtually the same age as Morel, so there’s no concern about sacrificing prime years.

Trading for Paredes “adds a proven bat” to the Cubs’ lineup and solidifies the defense at third, effectively raising their floor. This move has the added benefit of clearing more room at DH for Seiya Suzuki, whose -5 OAA put him in a tie with Hunter Renfroe for 31st among 38 players with at least 250 innings in right field. Great defense up the middle is a must, but it’s of little benefit when two of your corners look unplayable at times.

Now let’s check the other side.

Tails

Even though I’ve already acknowledged it, I want to repeat my understanding that baseball is not played on a spreadsheet. That said, the underlying Statcast data suggests very heavily that Paredes will not have quite the same offensive upside now that he’s out of Tampa. My concerns with his numbers are similar to those I had with Cody Bellinger when he was looking for a monster deal this past offseason and they’re basically the opposite of what I’d hoped would happen with Morel.

A big part of the issue is a hitting style that sees Paredes go to the pull side at a 53.5% clip, higher than any qualified MLB hitter other than Jose Altuve (57.0%). More worrisome is the fact that Paredes hits fly balls over 50% of the time and has a 22.0% infield fly rate, higher than anyone in MLB other than Corbin Carroll (23.6%). Mix in his .214 expected batting average, 84.9 mph average exit velocity, and 9th-percentile bat speed and you have reason to question whether Parades can continue putting up big numbers.

While he has managed to outperform his metrics in almost the opposite way Morel has underperformed his, Paredes benefits from a ballpark and league that are better suited to his style. The NL Central, on the other hand, may be the worst division in baseball for him. According to expected home runs — an adjusted number based on wall heights, distances, and environmental effects — the third baseman’s aggregate total of 68 dingers in his new division is the lowest of any division.

Take that with a grain of salt because the number assumes he’s playing every game in each respective park. Still, some may find it troubling that he’d have 19 in Tampa and only 11 at Wrigley. This feels like the flip side of Nick Castellanos, who was able to turn doubles at Comerica into homers at Wrigley in the days before each of them portended some sort of disaster or seismic cultural event. Paredes losing homers in favor of doubles wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing given the improved contact and glove work, but it’s an issue if those fly balls become cans of corn.

Another wrinkle here is that Morel has taken a big leap forward in terms of his own strikeout and walk rates. So while Paredes appears to be operating at the highest level of his potential, Morel may yet have a tremendous reservoir of additional output remaining. Provided the former keeps happening, the latter won’t be of nearly as much consequence for the Cubs.

The problem most people have with this deal can’t be quantified with anything other than a vibe meter, and that’s the players’ personalities. Morel’s boisterous presence stood out against the dull background of a team that just hasn’t been very fun. In contrast, Paredes prefers to keep to himself and stay out of the limelight. Even if that doesn’t have any sort of measurable impact on the team, the emotional component can’t be completely overlooked.

What this boils down to is being opportunistic, and the one area in which I’ll give Jed Hoyer high marks even without seeing the final results is that he made another aggressive move to address an area of uncertainty. The same was true of his trade for Michael Busch, though the stakes were much lower in that case and the parties involved weren’t nearly as well-known. The Cubs traded a higher ceiling for a higher floor, perhaps with the knowledge that they couldn’t or wouldn’t be able to give Morel the leeway he needs to develop further.

I could also see Bigge catching fire with an organization that has done a tremendous job of churning out successful pitchers.

The very best-case scenario would see both teams benefiting from every player involved doing well for years to come, and I truly hope that’s how this ends up. But until we see how Paredes hits over time at Wrigley and what the Cubs do to address other infield matters — Matt Shaw, James Triantos, Nico Hoerner, Patrick Wisdom, David Bote, Nick Madrigal, Miles Mastrobuoni — now that third base is locked up, I’m still unable to see this as anything other than a modest upgrade. As he’s so often stated, Hoyer is threading the needle to try to get his team back into contention starting next year.

Will it work? I certainly hope so, and it has to for Hoyer’s sake. Provided he’s done enough to keep his job for next year, which I think he has in ownership’s eyes. Feel free to bookmark this and tell me how big an idiot I am after Paredes hits 40 dingers and drives in 100 runs in each of the next three seasons.