Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/29/20, Game 1): Happ in CF, Contreras DH, Hoerner at 3B, Darvish Faces Bauer

There really isn’t much to say about the way the Cubs have been playing lately, so let’s dispense with the preamble to get right into it. This is the first of two games today against the Reds and soiling the bed against a world-class dingleberry who also happens to be pitching like an ace would be both disappointing and not at all unexpected.

The offense can’t keep coming in fits and spurts, or it needs to hang much crookeder numbers both early and late. That starts with Ian Happ in center, Anthony Rizzo at first base, and Javy Báez at short. Then comes Kyle Schwarber in left, Willson Contreras at DH, and Jason Heyward in right. Four of those guys hit homers yesterday, but it’d sure be nice if the Cubs could find a way to string more rallies together.

Victor Caratini handles the catching duties, Jason Kipnis is at second, and Nico Hoerner finishes the order at third base.

Yu Darvish is on the mound, so it’s possible the offense won’t need to break out of its collective funk just to win. Still, it’d be nice to give him a cushion and grant fans a little reprieve from the anxiety that can be drawn out when Darvish settles into his deliberate rhythm. He’s been so, so good over the last year-plus and he’s so fun to watch when he’s dealing.

Complicating matters is the presence of Trevor Bauer on the mound for the Reds, particularly since it’s not the World Series. In four regular-season starts against the Cubs, the outspoken righty has a 0.68 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 10 walks over 26.2 innings. He’s also putting up career-best numbers to this point in the season, including a 1.65 ERA,13.5 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9.

There’s a glimmer of hope in the .186 BABIP against that is unsustainably low for a guy who’s generating less groundball contact than ever. Interestingly enough, Bauer’s throwing his fastball with greater frequency despite having less velocity than in any of the past few seasons. What’s more, he’s getting better results with it than ever and currently has the highest value in MLB with 10 runs saved.

Bauer’s slider and cutter are also among the top 12 pitches in the majors in terms of value, and we can probably attribute this overall dominance to a quantum leap forward in his spin rate. His average spin has increased each season since Statcast started tracking it, which isn’t the least bit curious. However, after seemingly plateauing with aggregate averages of 2,438 and 2,456 RPMs in the two previous seasons, Bauer is generating 2,820 RPMs this year.

Some of that can be attributed to ditching the changeup, a pitch that doesn’t have nearly as much spin, but his other offerings are all up significantly. Bauer himself has been critical in the past of similar gains made by other pitchers, particularly those in the Astros organization, claiming that only through the use of foreign substances can pitchers enhance their grip to make big spin-rate jumps. Well, Trevor, how are you doing it?

I’m not feeling all that rosy about the Cubs’ chances in this one, but maybe that’s a good thing. First pitch is at 3:10pm CT with the second game to follow 45 after the conclusion of this one.

Here is our Game 1 lineup for today's doubleheader. pic.twitter.com/7eOcHqYzLV

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 29, 2020